980
FXUS62 KRAH 071021
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
615 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...
* NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1255 AM TUESDAY...
1) PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS FROST POTENTIAL COULD BE MITIGATED BY WIND TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS TOMORROW NIGHT.
2) WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY FORECAST, AND THE
PROLONGED INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL AIR AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1255 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CAA OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR CHILLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE LOW-MID 30S ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-85 AND ESP ALONG THE VA BORDER, WITH LOWS 35-40 ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ORDINARILY THESE TEMPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR PATCHY
FROST, WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE ARE EXPECTING NE WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT ALONG WITH
DWPTS FALLING THROUGH THE 20S, WHICH IN THIS CASE MAY ACTUALLY LIMIT
THE FROST POTENTIAL. THE LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FROST TONIGHT WILL BE THOSE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH LOW-MID 30S (ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-85 AND NEAR THE VA BORDER). WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AND
THE DAY SHIFT CAN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY SHOULD THE TRENDS SUPPORT
THAT.
COLD READINGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS NEAR TO
PERHAPS A DEGREE COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THIS TIME
WE'LL HAVE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD YET AGAIN LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT IF THESE CLOUDS DON'T
MATERIALIZE, OR IF THERE ARE AMPLE BREAKS IN THEM, WE COULD SEE
PATCHES OF FROST SET UP THURSDAY MORNING, ESP IN THE COLDER
LOCATIONS NORTH NEAR THE VA BORDER AND WEST OF THE TRIANGLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 ... WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY FORECAST,
AND THE PROLONGED INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL AIR AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PROLONGED PRESENCE AND INFLUENCE OF THE CP SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL FAVOR BOTH A DRY FORECAST AND MIN RH VALUES
BELOW 45% EVERY DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LOWEST AND MOSTLY IN THE
20S PERCENT TUE-WED. WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEY WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONGEST FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS AND WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 OR SO KTS WED, WHEN THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. CURRENT HIGH CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES (SKC) OVERNIGHT. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT
MORNING WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN TODAY, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/MWS
AVIATION...CA
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