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FXUS62 KRAH 071751
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
151 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 151 PM TUESDAY...
* NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1255 AM TUESDAY...
1) PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS FROST POTENTIAL COULD BE MITIGATED BY WIND TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS TOMORROW NIGHT.
2) WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY FORECAST, AND THE
PROLONGED INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL AIR AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1255 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CAA OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR CHILLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE LOW-MID 30S ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-85 AND ESP ALONG THE VA BORDER, WITH LOWS 35-40 ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ORDINARILY THESE TEMPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR PATCHY
FROST, WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE ARE EXPECTING NE WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT ALONG WITH
DWPTS FALLING THROUGH THE 20S, WHICH IN THIS CASE MAY ACTUALLY LIMIT
THE FROST POTENTIAL. THE LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FROST TONIGHT WILL BE THOSE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH LOW-MID 30S (ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-85 AND NEAR THE VA BORDER). WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AND
THE DAY SHIFT CAN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY SHOULD THE TRENDS SUPPORT
THAT.
COLD READINGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS NEAR TO
PERHAPS A DEGREE COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THIS TIME
WE'LL HAVE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD YET AGAIN LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT IF THESE CLOUDS DON'T
MATERIALIZE, OR IF THERE ARE AMPLE BREAKS IN THEM, WE COULD SEE
PATCHES OF FROST SET UP THURSDAY MORNING, ESP IN THE COLDER
LOCATIONS NORTH NEAR THE VA BORDER AND WEST OF THE TRIANGLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 ... WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY FORECAST,
AND THE PROLONGED INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL AIR AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PROLONGED PRESENCE AND INFLUENCE OF THE CP SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL FAVOR BOTH A DRY FORECAST AND MIN RH VALUES
BELOW 45% EVERY DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LOWEST AND MOSTLY IN THE
20S PERCENT TUE-WED. WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEY WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONGEST FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS AND WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 OR SO KTS WED, WHEN THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS, INITIALLY MOSTLY FROM THE
NNE THIS AFTERNOON THEN VEERING SLIGHTLY TO NE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. SOME BRIEF GUSTS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH GUSTINESS INCREASING BY TOMORROW MORNING TO THE 15-25 KT RANGE.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY AROUND FAY, BUT GIVEN THE
LOWEST 2 KFT LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY MIXED, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS, AND LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE IS MORE LIKELY.
OUTLOOK: DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/MWS
AVIATION...DANCO
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