422
FXUS62 KRAH 071822
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
222 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...
* NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...
1) PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
THIS FROST POTENTIAL COULD BE MITIGATED BY WIND TONIGHT AND CLOUDS
TOMORROW NIGHT.
2) WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY FORECAST, AND THE
PROLONGED INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL AIR AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THIS FROST POTENTIAL COULD BE MITIGATED BY
WIND TONIGHT AND CLOUDS TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE ARCTIC HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER MI AS OF 17Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL RIDGE SWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS AS IT
PROGRESSES EWD TO OVER NY BY 12Z WED MORNING, WHERE AT 1038 MB IT
MAY BREAK MONTHLY MSLP RECORDS OVER CNTL AND ERN NY AND PA. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WED/WED NIGHT, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THU/FRI. EXPECT CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRY/CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TONIGHT: WITH THE STRONG CAA, LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE
1300-1310 M RANGE, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE
LOWER-TO-MID-30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND 37-41 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE GIVEN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD
EVEN BE SOME BRIEF GUSTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THIS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, THE CHANCE FOR FROST LOOKS LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. IF ANY
PATCHY FROST WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
85. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF FROST, MAY STILL HARM
SENSITIVE/UNPROTECTED VEGETATION.
WED NIGHT: WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MORE SQUARELY OVER THE AREA WED
NIGHT, WINDS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY FULLY
DECOUPLING IN SOME SPOTS. THUS, WHILE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL METERS HIGHER, LOWS WILL BE NEAR IF NOT LOWER
THAN TONIGHT, RANGING FROM LOW/MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30 SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
THE 30S FROM E-W OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, WHILE THE
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN, POTENTIAL HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA COULD
SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE FROST DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY FORECAST,
AND THE PROLONGED INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL AIR AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PROLONGED PRESENCE AND INFLUENCE OF THE CP SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL FAVOR BOTH A DRY FORECAST AND MIN RH VALUES
BELOW 45% EVERY DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LOWEST AND MOSTLY IN THE
20S PERCENT TUE-WED. WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEY WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONGEST FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS AND WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 OR SO KTS WED, WHEN THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DESPITE THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND STATEWIDE BURN BAN, THE CURRENT FORECAST
WOULD NOT PROMPT ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS BOTH WIND AND RH CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET CONCURRENTLY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS, INITIALLY MOSTLY FROM THE
NNE THIS AFTERNOON THEN VEERING SLIGHTLY TO NE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. SOME BRIEF GUSTS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH GUSTINESS INCREASING BY TOMORROW MORNING TO THE 15-25 KT RANGE.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY AROUND FAY, BUT GIVEN THE
LOWEST 2 KFT LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY MIXED, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS, AND LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE IS MORE LIKELY.
OUTLOOK: DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANCO/KC/GREEN/MWS
AVIATION...DANCO
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