406
FXUS62 KRAH 081803
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
203 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
* NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) PATCHY FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... PATCHY FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ANOMALOUS ~1040MB SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE RIDGE AXIS TO SETTLE
MORE OVER THE CAROLINAS. UNLIKE EARLIER IN THE WEEK, THIS
POSITIONING WILL FAVOR A MORE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
ENVIRONMENT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE AND BECOME NEARLY CALM ACROSS MOST
OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE, THE LACK OF WIND WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW-TO-MID 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF THE
TRIANGLE. ADDING TO THE FROST POTENTIAL IS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB FROM THE 20S INTO
THE MID-30S OVERNIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST, PROVIDING THE NECESSARY
MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT ON VEGETATION, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING REMAINS THE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CIRRUS COULD ACT AS A LIGHT BLANKET AND LIMIT
COOLING, ANY CLEARING WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PATCHY
FROST. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
KEY MESSAGE 2... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO
RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE
GULF, LIMITING MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US, YIELDING A STRONG LOW-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SATURDAY WHEN FORECAST HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THESE WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON RH IS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL NOT HELP RECENT FIRE CONCERNS AND THE STATEWIDE BURN BAN,
MITIGATED ONLY BY RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS EACH DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LITTLE
STRONGER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE WILL ALSO BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN AND HIGHER RH.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH JUST PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN THIN CIRRUS. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN IS
NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15-20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES (RDU/FAY/RWI). WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO THE
DAY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084.
DISCUSSION...CA/BS
AVIATION...DANCO
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