768
FXUS62 KRAH 082345
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...
* A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT, WESTERN SANDHILLS
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
3) NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUE/WED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT,
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FROM 2
AM TO 9 AM THURSDAY.
A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NJ AND SE NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NE TO NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SLIGHTLY RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC, AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE SHOULD DECOUPLE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT, WHICH WOULD ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME VERY LIGHT TO
CALM. WHILE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CIRRUS AROUND, IT MAY BE THIN
ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. SO DESPITE
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, EXPECT
TONIGHT'S LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER-TO-MID-30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. RH'S
WILL INCREASE TO 80-90+% OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE
30S, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST FORMATION. SO A
FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THOSE
AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IN SKIES OCCURS.
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE, LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER-30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO
RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE
GULF, LIMITING MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US, YIELDING A STRONG LOW-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SATURDAY WHEN FORECAST HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THESE WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON RH IS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL NOT HELP RECENT FIRE CONCERNS AND THE STATEWIDE BURN BAN,
MITIGATED ONLY BY RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS EACH DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LITTLE
STRONGER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE WILL ALSO BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN AND HIGHER RH.
KEY MESSAGE 3... NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUE/WED.
SOARING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BENEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE NEXT WEEK
WILL CULMINATE IN VALUES 40-45 M ABOVE NORMAL, SUGGESTING VERY WARM
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90, AROUND 14 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS. THIS LEVEL OF EARLY-
SEASON HEAT COULD BE DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY TO THOSE VULNERABLE TO
HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH JUST PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN THIN CIRRUS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 11: KFAY: 90/2001
APRIL 13: KGSO: 88/1930 KRDU: 89/1922
APRIL 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13: KGSO: 61/2019 KRDU: 66/1930
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084.
DISCUSSION...DANCO/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT/DANCO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page