763
FXUS62 KRAH 090536
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 135 AM THURSDAY...
* THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY FRI MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 135 AM THURSDAY...
1) FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN,
WHERE AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
3) NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUE/WED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 135 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS
MORNING. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THE FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT, WESTERN
SANDHILLS, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S BY DAYBREAK, PROMOTING POTENTIAL FROST
FORMATION. CURRENTLY, AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT STIRRING HAS KEPT
MOST CENTRAL NC IN THE 40S. BUT THESE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD INTO EARLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING BY SUNRISE.
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, GUIDANCE, SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR, HREF,
AND RAP, IS STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE SETUP FEATURES
OVERALL CLEAR SKIES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, CALM WINDS, AND
RISING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATION FOG VIA MORE FAVORABLE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION, WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE TYPICAL
COOLER SPOTS OF THE PIEDMONT (SILER CITY, ROXBORO) AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
NO RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE
GULF, LIMITING MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD WILL TRY TO
SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY BUT WILL WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS,
WITH DAILY AFTERNOON RH IS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WILL NOT HELP
RECENT FIRE CONCERNS AND THE STATEWIDE BURN BAN, MITIGATED ONLY BY
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS EACH DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND A
LITTLE STRONGER. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
AND HIGHER RH TO POTENTIALLY OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGE 3... NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUE/WED.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1400M BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, SOME 40-45M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS AS
MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS
MON/TUE. THIS LEVEL OF EARLY-SEASON HEAT COULD BE DANGEROUS,
ESPECIALLY TO THOSE VULNERABLE TO HEAT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1252 AM THURSDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF
PERIOD. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CEILING AT RWI EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE ENE AT 5-8 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG FRI
MORNING, MOST FAVORED AT RWI AND POSSIBLY RDU. OTHERWISE, VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 11: KFAY: 90/2001
APRIL 13: KGSO: 88/1930 KRDU: 89/1922
APRIL 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13: KGSO: 61/2019 KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084.
DISCUSSION...KREN/BLS
AVIATION...KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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