454
FXUS62 KRAH 091735
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...
* THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY FRI MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 135 PM THURSDAY...
1) PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
3) NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 135 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, GUIDANCE, SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR, HREF,
AND RAP, IS STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE SETUP FEATURES
OVERALL CLEAR SKIES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, CALM WINDS, AND
RISING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATION FOG VIA MORE FAVORABLE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION, WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE TYPICAL
COOLER SPOTS OF THE PIEDMONT (SILER CITY, ROXBORO) AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
NO RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE
GULF, LIMITING MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD WILL TRY TO
SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY BUT WILL WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS,
WITH DAILY AFTERNOON RH IS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WILL NOT HELP
RECENT FIRE CONCERNS AND THE STATEWIDE BURN BAN, MITIGATED ONLY BY
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS EACH DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND A
LITTLE STRONGER. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
AND HIGHER RH TO POTENTIALLY OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGE 3... NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE
THROUGH THU.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STEADILY BUILD OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL RISE FROM 20-25 M ABOVE NORMAL MON TO 40-50 M ABOVE NORMAL BY
WED/THU, WITH WED LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-THU, WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTIONS BELOW). NWS EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK
REACHES LEVEL 2/MODERATE/ORANGE BY WED, AND THIS LEVEL OF EARLY-
SEASON HEAT COULD BE DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY TO THOSE VULNERABLE TO
THE HEAT. CPC OUTLOOKS EXTENDING BEYOND THU SUGGEST THAT TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO STAY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH AN
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 5-8 KT. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE, IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG AS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG (40-50 PERCENT) IS AT RWI, BUT THIS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT RDU/FAY (30 PERCENT). FOR NOW, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR
IS AT RWI.
OUTLOOK: AFTER SOME POTENTIAL FOG FRI MORNING, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 11:
KFAY: 90/2001
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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