911
FXUS62 KRAH 091742
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...
* THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY FRI MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
1) PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
3) NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, GUIDANCE, SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR, HREF,
AND RAP, IS STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE SETUP FEATURES
OVERALL CLEAR SKIES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, CALM WINDS, AND
RISING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATION FOG VIA MORE FAVORABLE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION, WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST OVER THE TYPICAL
COOLER SPOTS OF THE PIEDMONT (SILER CITY, ROXBORO) AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DRY FUELS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE
GULF, LIMITING MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SLIP SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL WILL MOST LIKELY
WASH OUT AS IT REACHES CENTRAL NC, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, WITH
DAILY AFTERNOON RH OF 20-35 PERCENT, WILL WORSEN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, WITH ONLY THE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS EACH DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE HELPING TO MITIGATE THE THREAT. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
NC FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER RH AND MAY HELP IMPROVE THE FIRE CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE
THROUGH THU.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STEADILY BUILD OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL RISE FROM 20-25 M ABOVE NORMAL MON TO 40-50 M ABOVE NORMAL BY
WED/THU, WITH WED LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-THU, WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTIONS BELOW). NWS EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK
REACHES LEVEL 2/MODERATE/ORANGE BY WED, AND THIS LEVEL OF EARLY-
SEASON HEAT COULD BE DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY TO THOSE VULNERABLE TO
THE HEAT. CPC OUTLOOKS EXTENDING BEYOND THU SUGGEST THAT TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO STAY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH AN
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 5-8 KT. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE, IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG AS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG (40-50 PERCENT) IS AT RWI, BUT THIS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT RDU/FAY (30 PERCENT). FOR NOW, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR
IS AT RWI.
OUTLOOK: AFTER SOME POTENTIAL FOG FRI MORNING, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 11:
KFAY: 90/2001
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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