285
FXUS62 KRAH 091848
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
248 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
* THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FOG OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NE PIEDMONT EARLY FRI
MORNING.
* CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. BUT PATCHY FROST WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
1) PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER NE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, WHEN ISOLATED FROST ALSO CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE
COOLEST PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OWING TO DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
3) NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER NE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHEN ISOLATED FROST ALSO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT OVER THE COOLEST PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN.
A ~1040 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THE US EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
AS IT MOVES FARTHER NE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN
SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH MAINLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEW
POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN AREAS, HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 20-
30 M HIGHER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING MEANS CONFIDENCE IN FROST
DEVELOPMENT IS LOWER, SO OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, PATCHY FROST CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT IN THE USUAL
COOL OUTLYING SPOTS OF THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, SUCH
AS ROXBORO AND SILER CITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DRY FUELS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE
GULF, LIMITING MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SLIP SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL WILL MOST LIKELY
WASH OUT AS IT REACHES CENTRAL NC, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, WITH
DAILY AFTERNOON RH OF 20-35 PERCENT, WILL WORSEN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, WITH ONLY THE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS EACH DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE HELPING TO MITIGATE THE THREAT. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
NC FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER RH AND MAY HELP IMPROVE THE FIRE CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE
THROUGH THU.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STEADILY BUILD OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL RISE FROM 20-25 M ABOVE NORMAL MON TO 40-50 M ABOVE NORMAL BY
WED/THU, WITH WED LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-THU, WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTIONS BELOW). NWS EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK
REACHES LEVEL 2/MODERATE/ORANGE BY WED, AND THIS LEVEL OF EARLY-
SEASON HEAT COULD BE DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY TO THOSE VULNERABLE TO
THE HEAT. CPC OUTLOOKS EXTENDING BEYOND THU SUGGEST THAT TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO STAY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT NE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS. SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING
INTO TOMORROW. THE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH MAINLY CALM WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NE PIEDMONT. THIS SIGNAL
SHOWS UP ON THE HREF AS WELL AS THE HRRR, RAP, NAM AND GLAMP.
CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS HIGHEST AT RWI, WHERE IFR AND MAYBE
EVEN LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
AT RDU, AS A LOT OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE PUTS IT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
ANY FOG/MIST THAT DEVELOPS. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY MID-MORNING,
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE EARLY
MORNINGS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 11:
KFAY: 90/2001
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANCO/KREN/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DANCO
CLIMATE...RAH
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