147
FXUS62 KRAH 100541
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
141 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...
* NO MAJOR CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...
1) THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
OWING TO EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS, NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
3) NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF FOG THIS MORNING
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING FOG OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, ROUGHLY FROM
ROCKY MOUNT TO LOUISBURG TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. THIS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE A FOG THREAT THIS MORNING, MAINLY IN THE HOURS OF 5 AND 8
AM. THE LATEST HREF MEMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON
THE WESTWARD EXTENT, WITH EVEN THE HRRR KEEPING MOST OF THE
POTENTIAL FOG EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. WE WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ANY FOG
SHOULD DISPERSE AND LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK OWING TO EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS, NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SLIP BACKDOOR INTO NORTHEAST
NC. THERE AS SUBTLE HINTS OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT,
MAINLY FROM THE NAM OWING TO SOME WEAK AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY, BUT
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT FRONT WILL BE DRY AND WILL BE THE ONLY
BLIP IN BUILDING HEAT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
WEEK HAS BEEN WEAK WINDS, BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN A
PATTERN MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS,
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STILL SUGGESTS WINDS AND GUST BELOW
20MPH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE MIXING THAT WILL KEEP RH
VALUES IN THE 20S AND 30S MOST DAYS, SO FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS MAY
HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3... NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH
THU.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STEADILY BUILD OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL RISE FROM 20-25 M ABOVE NORMAL MON TO 40-50 M ABOVE NORMAL BY
WED/THU, WITH WED LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-THU, WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTIONS BELOW). NWS EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK
REACHES LEVEL 2/MODERATE/ORANGE BY TUE/WED, AND THIS LEVEL OF EARLY-
SEASON HEAT COULD BE DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY TO THOSE VULNERABLE TO
THE HEAT. CPC OUTLOOKS EXTENDING BEYOND THU SUGGEST THAT TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO STAY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT GSO, INT, AND FAY WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. AT RDU AND RWI, WE CONTINUE TO WATCH
FOR THE THREAT OF FOG EARLY FRI MORNING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL
BE AT RWI, WHERE MOST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREE FOR A 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 10 AND 13Z. DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S AT RWI, AND WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S, CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED. AS
SUCH, THE FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AT RWI, KEEPING THE
TEMPO FOR LIFR FOG. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 14Z, WITH VFR
THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK: VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF SAT AND SUN, THOUGH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SAT NIGHT COULD BRING SUB-VFR STRATUS OVER
THE PIEDMONT EARLY SUN. VFR IS EXPECTED MON AND TUE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 11:
KFAY: 90/2001
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLS/KREN
AVIATION...KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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