432
FXUS62 KRAH 102322
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
722 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
* NO MAJOR CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
1) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO DRY WEATHER, NEAR
RECORD HEAT, AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
2) NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO DRY
WEATHER, NEAR RECORD HEAT, AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN ALONG A FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY, THERE HAS BEEN
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY. RIGHT
NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WOULD BE ALONG A FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND
THERE ISN'T EVEN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECIFICALLY ADD A 20% MENTION
OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH
OF US-64. EVERY DAY IN THE FORECAST, THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUE ACROSS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 25-40% RANGE.
WHILE WIND GUSTS SHOULDN'T BE HIGHER THAN 10-15 MPH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF RH AND WIND VALUES WILL NOT REACH
OFFICIAL "INCREASED FIRE DANGER" OR "RED FLAG WARNING" CRITERIA,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN UNTIL A WETTING RAIN OCCURS, WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON. A BURN BAN REMAINS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGE 2... NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE EVERY PERIOD THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, BUT IT IS NOT UNTIL TUESDAY THAT THE FORECAST
SHOULD BEGIN TO FLIRT WITH RECORD WARMTH. THROUGH THE FORECAST, ALL
RECORD HIGHS AT OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES ARE IN THE 90S EXCEPT FOR
UPPER 80S AT GSO/RDU ON MONDAY AND GSO ON THURSDAY. THE FIRST DAY IN
THE FORECAST WHERE ANY LOCATION IN THE AREA REACHES 90 DEGREES IS
TUESDAY, AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE DAYS OF
90 DEGREE HEAT, WEATHER THAT IS TYPICAL IN JULY AND AUGUST, NOT
APRIL. NWS EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK REACHES LEVEL 2/MODERATE/ORANGE BY
TUE/WED, AND WITH THE FIRST 90 DEGREE FORECASTS OF THE YEAR, PEOPLE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT SHOULD BE PREPARED.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 721 PM FRIDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE AN ISOLATED PM SHOWER.
CHANCES ARE 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK: VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 11:
KFAY: 90/2001
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN
AVIATION...BADGETT
CLIMATE...RAH
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