907
FXUS62 KRAH 111000
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
600 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...
* INTRODUCED A 20-PERCENT CHANCE OF WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...
1) A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW-
END THREAT OF A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED STORMS BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM.
2) DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL MAINTAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
3) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW- END THREAT OF A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED
STORMS BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM.
A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL PUSH THROUGH IN BACKDOOR FASHION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE OF AROUND 1032 MB OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY SUN MORNING, AIDING THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST
FROM SE VA AND NE NC TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH DURING
THE DAY, WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE NORTH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FROM FRI, WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M, SUPPORTIVE OF LOW/MID 80S FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NC. THIS IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A WEAK AREA LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
CHARLOTTE AREA AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. AS THAT HAPPENS, IT MAY
AID SOME POOLING/CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, TRIAD,
AND TRIANGLE FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40/I-85 AND US-64. IN THIS
REGION IS WHERE SEVERAL HREF MEMBERS ARE INDICATING SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG, IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 20-25 KT
OF NORTHWESTERLY DEEP SHEAR. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PW'S NEAR
NORMAL AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE.
NEVERTHELESS, SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING INITIALLY ALONG THE TRIAD AND
PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM, BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
DEVELOPING GIVEN SUB-OPTIMAL CONDITIONS IS LOW. HOWEVER, CANNOT
FULLY RULE IT OUT WITH FAIRLY STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES. IF A SHOWER
OR STORM CAN MANAGE TO FORM, IT COULD FEED ON SOME MODEST DCAPE AND
INVERTED-V PROFILES SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SOME BRIEF 20-30
KT GUSTINESS WITH THEIR OUTFLOW. WE OPTED TO INTRODUCE 20-PERCENT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA GIVEN THE SETUP. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS FROM THE EAST OF 15-
18 KT WITHIN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL MAINTAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROP INTO THE 25–30% RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY RELAXED—LIMITING PEAK WIND GUSTS TO THE
15–20 MPH RANGE—THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY IS
NOTABLE. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY AND WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW OFFICIAL "INCREASED FIRE DANGER" OR
"RED FLAG WARNING" CRITERIA, ELEVATED CONCERNS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A
WETTING RAIN OCCURS. WITH NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION ON THE
HORIZON, THE STATEWIDE BURN BAN FOR NORTH CAROLINA REMAINS IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGE 3... NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WITH WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LATE
WEEK WITH NEAR TO RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S
EXPECTED AT ALL 3 CLIMATE SITES (GSO/RDU/FAY) EACH DAY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING A LOW-END THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS AND A WIDELY ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. INSTABILITY IS WEAK, BUT
CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT THIS THREAT GIVEN SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE WESTWARD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. THE BEST CHANCE BASED ON THE HREF
ENSEMBLE WOULD BE AT GSO, INT, AND RDU IN THE HOURS OF 20-24Z. FOR
NOW, GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, KEPT PROB30 GROUPS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF 15-18 KT UPON
PASSAGE. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND WEAK UPSLOPE WILL
FAVOR THE CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS AT GSO/INT EARLY SUN MORNING.
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT RDU/FAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THESE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE MON IN A RETURN FLOW REGIME,
MOST FAVORED AT GSO/INT AND RDU. VFR SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 11:
KFAY: 90/2001
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 88/1930
KRDU: 89/1922
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 88/2002
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 94/2006
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 90/1967
KRDU: 93/1896
KFAY: 92/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 66/2006
KRDU: 64/1912
KFAY: 69/1934
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 63/2002
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 66/1921
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/KREN
AVIATION...KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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