371
FXUS62 KRAH 111710
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
* CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MULTI-DAY EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
1) A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW-
END THREAT OF A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED STORMS BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
VERY HOT DAYS. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH SAT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW-END THREAT OF A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED
STORMS BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM.
A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL PUSH THROUGH IN BACKDOOR FASHION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE OF AROUND 1032 MB OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY SUN MORNING, AIDING THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST
FROM SE VA AND NE NC TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH DURING
THE DAY, WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE NORTH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FROM FRI, WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M, SUPPORTIVE OF LOW/MID 80S FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NC. THIS IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A WEAK AREA LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
CHARLOTTE AREA AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. AS THAT HAPPENS, IT MAY
AID SOME POOLING/CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, TRIAD,
AND TRIANGLE FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40/I-85 AND US-64. IN THIS
REGION IS WHERE SEVERAL HREF MEMBERS ARE INDICATING SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG, IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 20-25 KT
OF NORTHWESTERLY DEEP SHEAR. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PW'S NEAR
NORMAL AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE.
NEVERTHELESS, SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING INITIALLY ALONG THE TRIAD AND
PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM, BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
DEVELOPING GIVEN SUB-OPTIMAL CONDITIONS IS LOW. HOWEVER, CANNOT
FULLY RULE IT OUT WITH FAIRLY STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES. IF A SHOWER
OR STORM CAN MANAGE TO FORM, IT COULD FEED ON SOME MODEST DCAPE AND
INVERTED-V PROFILES SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SOME BRIEF 20-30
KT GUSTINESS WITH THEIR OUTFLOW. WE OPTED TO INTRODUCE 20-PERCENT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA GIVEN THE SETUP. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS FROM THE EAST OF 15-
18 KT WITHIN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO HOLD BELOW CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS, AS GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK AT AROUND 15 MPH WITH INFREQUENT AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO
20 MPH. BUT FUELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25–30% RANGE TUE THROUGH FRI.
NATIONAL FORESTRY OFFICIALS ARE INDICATING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHEST FROM THE NC
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. A STATEWIDE BURN BAN REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NC UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ALL BURNING, INCLUDING
WITH PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED PERMITS, IS PROHIBITED.
KEY MESSAGE 3... DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, WITH
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE VERY HOT DAYS. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
TUE THROUGH SAT.
CONCERN IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DANGEROUS EARLY-
SEASON HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING
NOW OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF WILL STEADILY BUILD AND AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE, DEFLECTING MOST FRONTS AND PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS
TO OUR W AND N AND KEEPING US GENERALLY DRY UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
DAILY LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
AS MUCH AS 50 M INTO NEXT SAT. PERIODS OF CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
INCLUDING ON FRI WHEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS TAKE A WEAK BAJA-SOURCE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. BUT, OVERALL, SUNSHINE WILL BE
ABUNDANT, CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH HEAT STRESS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPS
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW), WITH HIGHS AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD 90S OVER
CENTRAL NC IS INCREASING, AND THE LATEST NBM'S 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
HIGHS AT RDU IS 95-100 DEGREES F EVERY DAY WED-SAT. THESE SUCCESSIVE
DAYS OF PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED HEAT MAY BE DANGEROUS FOR ALL
POPULATIONS BUT PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
THOSE WORKING OR EXERCISING OUTDOORS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING A LOW-END THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS AND A WIDELY ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. INSTABILITY IS WEAK, BUT
CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT THIS THREAT GIVEN SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE WESTWARD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. THE BEST CHANCE BASED ON THE HREF
ENSEMBLE WOULD BE AT GSO, INT, AND RDU IN THE HOURS OF 20-24Z. FOR
NOW, GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, KEPT PROB30 GROUPS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF 15-18 KT UPON
PASSAGE. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND WEAK UPSLOPE WILL
FAVOR THE CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS AT GSO/INT EARLY SUN MORNING.
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT RDU/FAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THESE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE MON IN A RETURN FLOW REGIME,
MOST FAVORED AT GSO/INT AND RDU. VFR SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 11:
KFAY: 90/2001
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 88/1930
KRDU: 89/1922
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 88/2002
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 94/2006
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 90/1967
KRDU: 93/1896
KFAY: 92/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 66/2006
KRDU: 64/1912
KFAY: 69/1934
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 63/2002
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 66/1921
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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