027
FXUS62 KRAH 111915
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
* CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MULTI-DAY EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
1) A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A LOW-END THREAT OF A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED STORMS BETWEEN 4
AND 9 PM.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
VERY HOT DAYS. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH SAT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW-END THREAT OF A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED STORMS BETWEEN 4 AND 9 PM.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN VA. THIS WILL MOVE W/SW ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTH TO EAST, WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE
ALONG AND BEHIND IT AT TIMES. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
RESULTING IN AN AREA OF RELATIVE HIGHER PW VALUES STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTHERN NC, THOUGH THIS IS STILL ONLY NEAR NORMAL. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE LIKE THE HREF, RAP AND NAM ARE DEPICTING AN AREA OF 250-500
J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON, QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUBBLING CUMULUS
OVER VA AND NORTHERN NC, AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVE
(AROUND 9 C/KM). THUS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR
TWO OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT (PARTICULARLY THE NW PIEDMONT) WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM 20Z TO 01Z, SO RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THERE. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING DCAPE IN
THE 800-1000 J/KG RANGE MEAN WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. BUT INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(6-6.5 C/KM) WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO HOLD BELOW CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS, AS GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK AT AROUND 15 MPH WITH INFREQUENT AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO
20 MPH. BUT FUELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25–30% RANGE TUE THROUGH FRI.
NATIONAL FORESTRY OFFICIALS ARE INDICATING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHEST FROM THE NC
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. A STATEWIDE BURN BAN REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NC UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ALL BURNING, INCLUDING
WITH PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED PERMITS, IS PROHIBITED.
KEY MESSAGE 3... DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, WITH
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE VERY HOT DAYS. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
TUE THROUGH SAT.
CONCERN IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DANGEROUS EARLY-
SEASON HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING
NOW OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF WILL STEADILY BUILD AND AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE, DEFLECTING MOST FRONTS AND PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS
TO OUR W AND N AND KEEPING US GENERALLY DRY UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
DAILY LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
AS MUCH AS 50 M INTO NEXT SAT. PERIODS OF CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
INCLUDING ON FRI WHEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS TAKE A WEAK BAJA-SOURCE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. BUT, OVERALL, SUNSHINE WILL BE
ABUNDANT, CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH HEAT STRESS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPS
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW), WITH HIGHS AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD 90S OVER
CENTRAL NC IS INCREASING, AND THE LATEST NBM'S 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
HIGHS AT RDU IS 95-100 DEGREES F EVERY DAY WED-SAT. THESE SUCCESSIVE
DAYS OF PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED HEAT MAY BE DANGEROUS FOR ALL
POPULATIONS BUT PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
THOSE WORKING OR EXERCISING OUTDOORS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN VA WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTH TO EAST AND
PERHAPS SOME GUSTINESS ALONG AND BEHIND IT. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS (MAYBE EVEN A STORM OR TWO) MOVING FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
SOUTH AND EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS CHANCE
IS MAINLY AT INT, GSO AND RDU AND CONTINUE PROB30 GROUPS DUE TO
EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. A
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY ALSO
RESULT IN SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT INT/GSO FOLLOWED BY FAY.
OUTLOOK: MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE MON IN A RETURN FLOW REGIME,
MOST FAVORED AT GSO/INT AND RDU. VFR SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 11:
KFAY: 90/2001
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 88/1930
KRDU: 89/1922
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 88/2002
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 94/2006
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 90/1967
KRDU: 93/1896
KFAY: 92/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 66/2006
KRDU: 64/1912
KFAY: 69/1934
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 63/2002
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 66/1921
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANCO/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DANCO/KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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