760
FXUS62 KRAH 112335
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
735 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
* CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MULTI-DAY EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 735 PM SATURDAY...
1) A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
3) DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
VERY HOT DAYS. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH SAT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 735 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS
FRONT ALONG WITH MOISTURE POOLING (EVIDENT IN RAP ANALYSIS PW
FIELDS) HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. KEXX SAW 0.02 EARLIER THIS
EVENING WITH ONE OF THESE SHOWERS AND UNDOUBTEDLY SIMILAR AMOUNTS
WERE SEEN BETWEEN KINT/KGSO WHERE A SHOWER MANAGED TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE AREA. ELSEWHERE IT HAS REMAINED DRY, AND WILL REMAIN AS SUCH FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT REMAIN ON RADAR SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OVERNIGHT AND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT, COUPLED WITH INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS, EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE WOULD SUPPORT STRATUS VS FOG SO WE WILL
LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO HOLD BELOW CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS, AS GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK AT AROUND 15 MPH WITH INFREQUENT AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO
20 MPH. BUT FUELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25–30% RANGE TUE THROUGH FRI.
NATIONAL FORESTRY OFFICIALS ARE INDICATING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHEST FROM THE NC
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. A STATEWIDE BURN BAN REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NC UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ALL BURNING, INCLUDING
WITH PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED PERMITS, IS PROHIBITED.
KEY MESSAGE 3... DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, WITH
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE VERY HOT DAYS. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
TUE THROUGH SAT.
CONCERN IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DANGEROUS EARLY-
SEASON HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING
NOW OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF WILL STEADILY BUILD AND AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE, DEFLECTING MOST FRONTS AND PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS
TO OUR W AND N AND KEEPING US GENERALLY DRY UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
DAILY LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
AS MUCH AS 50 M INTO NEXT SAT. PERIODS OF CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
INCLUDING ON FRI WHEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS TAKE A WEAK BAJA-SOURCE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. BUT, OVERALL, SUNSHINE WILL BE
ABUNDANT, CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH HEAT STRESS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPS
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW), WITH HIGHS AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD 90S OVER
CENTRAL NC IS INCREASING, AND THE LATEST NBM'S 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
HIGHS AT RDU IS 95-100 DEGREES F EVERY DAY WED-SAT. THESE SUCCESSIVE
DAYS OF PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED HEAT MAY BE DANGEROUS FOR ALL
POPULATIONS BUT PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
THOSE WORKING OR EXERCISING OUTDOORS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 735 PM SATURDAY...
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT (AND THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS FRONT) HAS SUPPORTED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS OF
EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE THREADED THE NEEDLE BETWEEN INT/GSO AND
MANAGED TO AVOID THE REMAINING TERMINALS OUTRIGHT. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE INT/GSO VICINITY AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER 02Z. DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.
WEAK MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, POTENTIALLY DROPPING
BRIEFLY TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. ALSO,
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
BL BRIEFLY DEEPENS AS THE 925MB FRONT SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK: MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE MON IN A RETURN FLOW REGIME,
MOST FAVORED AT GSO/INT AND RDU. VFR SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 11:
KFAY: 90/2001
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 88/1930
KRDU: 89/1922
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 88/2002
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 94/2006
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 90/1967
KRDU: 93/1896
KFAY: 92/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 66/2006
KRDU: 64/1912
KFAY: 69/1934
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 63/2002
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 66/1921
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEINS/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...LEINS
CLIMATE...RAH
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