813
FXUS62 KRAH 120556
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
156 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 156 AM SUNDAY...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING MID TO LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 156 AM SUNDAY...
1) DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL MAINTAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
2) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 156 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL MAINTAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROP INTO THE 25–30% THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK, PARTICULARLY
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RELATIVELY RELAXED—LIMITING PEAK WIND GUSTS TO THE 15–20
MPH RANGE, THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY IS
NOTEWORTHY. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY AND
WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW OFFICIAL INCREASED FIRE
DANGER OR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WETTING RAIN OCCURS. WITH NO MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION ON THE HORIZON, PERHAPS NOT UNTIL THE TAIL END OF
THE MONTH, A STATEWIDE BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NC
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WITH ALL BURNING, INCLUDING WITH
PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED PERMITS, PROHIBITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2... NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WITH WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY. THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS, NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
MID-APRIL. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE 20-25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NEAR TO RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 90S EXPECTED
AT ALL 3 CLIMATE SITES (GSO/RDU/FAY) EACH DAY MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING FRI-SUN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT TRIES TO APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. DURING THIS
TIME, THE NBM PERCENTILES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/UPPER
90S IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE AND SANDHILLS. OUR SAVING
GRACE WILL BE THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 50S, KEEPING RH QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE
25-30 PERCENT RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 156 AM SUNDAY...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY PUSHING WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NC. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST INTO THE
PIEDMONT, STALLING OUT NEAR THE TRIAD BY EARLY MORNING. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL AID POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FAVOR STRATUS ACROSS MANY OF THE TERMINALS. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE ON IFR/MVFR STRATUS IS AT GSO/INT, THEN SECONDARY AT
RDU/FAY. THIS STRATUS IS MOST FAVORED IN THE 11 TO 16Z TIME FRAME,
SLOWEST TO ERODE AT GSO/INT. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT
TODAY, WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 16-18 KT, WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.
AN INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE TONIGHT WILL FAVOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTINESS UP TO 18 KT IN THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD. A RETURN TO SOME
SUB-VFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BY MON MORNING, MOST FAVORED AT RDU/FAY,
AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
OUTLOOK: OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS MON, VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME RECORDS FOR APRIL
KGSO: 95 ON 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 ON 4/23/1980 AND 4/28/1896
KFAY: 96 ON 4/12/1930
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 88/1930
KRDU: 89/1922
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 88/2002
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 94/2006
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 90/1967
KRDU: 93/1896
KFAY: 92/1941
APRIL 18:
KGSO: 90/1976
KRDU: 95/1896
KFAY: 93/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 66/2006
KRDU: 64/1912
KFAY: 69/1934
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 63/2002
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 66/1921
APRIL 18:
KGSO: 66/1909
KRDU: 63/1941
KFAY: 67/2002
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/KREN
AVIATION...KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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