180
FXUS62 KRAH 121030
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 156 AM SUNDAY...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING MID TO LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 156 AM SUNDAY...
1) DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL MAINTAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
2) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 156 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL MAINTAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROP INTO THE 25–30% THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK, PARTICULARLY
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RELATIVELY RELAXED—LIMITING PEAK WIND GUSTS TO THE 15–20
MPH RANGE, THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY IS
NOTEWORTHY. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY AND
WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW OFFICIAL INCREASED FIRE
DANGER OR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WETTING RAIN OCCURS. WITH NO MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION ON THE HORIZON, PERHAPS NOT UNTIL THE TAIL END OF
THE MONTH, A STATEWIDE BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NC
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WITH ALL BURNING, INCLUDING WITH
PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED PERMITS, PROHIBITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2... NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WITH WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY. THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS, NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
MID-APRIL. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE 20-25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NEAR TO RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 90S EXPECTED
AT ALL 3 CLIMATE SITES (GSO/RDU/FAY) EACH DAY MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING FRI-SUN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT TRIES TO APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. DURING THIS
TIME, THE NBM PERCENTILES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/UPPER
90S IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE AND SANDHILLS. OUR SAVING
GRACE WILL BE THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 50S, KEEPING RH QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE
25-30 PERCENT RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD THIS MORNING. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND CHARLOTTE AREA HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
WEST. AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THIS AREA OF MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WEST AS MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE POOLS INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL NC. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL BE
LOCATED, WITH MOST GUIDANCE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE STRATUS SHIELD
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY, CURRENT
THINKING FAVORS THIS STRATUS AT THE EASTERN SITES (RDU, FAY, RWI)
BETWEEN 12-15Z AND ENVELOPING OVER THE TRIAD TERMINALS (GSO/INT) IN
THE 12-16Z TIME PERIOD, WHERE IFR MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT GSO/INT STAY WEST OF THE STRATUS SHIELD, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT IN REMOVING THIS FROM THE TAF GIVEN BROAD
CONSENSUS OF WESTWARD ADVECTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.
A SEA-BREEZE WILL FAVOR SOME GUSTINESS IN THE 12-18 KT RANGE BETWEEN
00-06Z TONIGHT. A RETURN PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
EARLY MON IN A MOIST RETURN FLOW AND AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF/WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR, BUT
INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT THE EASTERN SITES, WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS BROAD AGREEMENT.
OUTLOOK: OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS MON, VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME RECORDS FOR APRIL
KGSO: 95 ON 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 ON 4/23/1980 AND 4/28/1896
KFAY: 96 ON 4/12/1930
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 88/1930
KRDU: 89/1922
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 88/2002
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 94/2006
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 90/1967
KRDU: 93/1896
KFAY: 92/1941
APRIL 18:
KGSO: 90/1976
KRDU: 95/1896
KFAY: 93/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 66/2006
KRDU: 64/1912
KFAY: 69/1934
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 63/2002
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 66/1921
APRIL 18:
KGSO: 66/1909
KRDU: 63/1941
KFAY: 67/2002
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/KREN
AVIATION...KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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