622
FXUS62 KRAH 121801
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 156 AM SUNDAY...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING MID TO LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 156 AM SUNDAY...
1) DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL MAINTAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
2) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 156 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL MAINTAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROP INTO THE 25–30% THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK, PARTICULARLY
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RELATIVELY RELAXED—LIMITING PEAK WIND GUSTS TO THE 15–20
MPH RANGE, THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY IS
NOTEWORTHY. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY AND
WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW OFFICIAL INCREASED FIRE
DANGER OR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WETTING RAIN OCCURS. WITH NO MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION ON THE HORIZON, PERHAPS NOT UNTIL THE TAIL END OF
THE MONTH, A STATEWIDE BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NC
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WITH ALL BURNING, INCLUDING WITH
PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED PERMITS, PROHIBITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2... NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WITH WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY. THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS, NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
MID-APRIL. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE 20-25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NEAR TO RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 90S EXPECTED
AT ALL 3 CLIMATE SITES (GSO/RDU/FAY) EACH DAY MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING FRI-SUN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT TRIES TO APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. DURING THIS
TIME, THE NBM PERCENTILES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/UPPER
90S IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE AND SANDHILLS. OUR SAVING
GRACE WILL BE THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 50S, KEEPING RH QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE
25-30 PERCENT RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH
A FEW AREAS OF MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ALONG
WITH SOME MARGINAL LLWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT
TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL NC LAST NIGHT AND
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING IS WASHING OUT. THE STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED BUT A FIELD
OF SCT TO BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3-4KFT HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL EXPAND WEST OVER DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. HARD TO DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE BUT THEY WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
(INCLUDING KFAY) AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT (INCLUDING KRWI AND KRDU). SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10KTS WITH THE FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 16KTS. WINDS WILL STAY UP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WHILE THE GUSTS WILL BE LESS COMMON A FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 6 TO 10KTS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT
(INCLUDING KINT, KGSO, AND KRDU). WITH MIXING, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 8 TO 12KTS ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 22KTS). A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WHILE NOT
TECHNICALLY TRUE LLWS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
MIXED, THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS-LIKE IMPACTS OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE KINT AND KGSO TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME RECORDS FOR APRIL
KGSO: 95 ON 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 ON 4/23/1980 AND 4/28/1896
KFAY: 96 ON 4/12/1930
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 88/1930
KRDU: 89/1922
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 88/2002
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 94/2006
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 90/1967
KRDU: 93/1896
KFAY: 92/1941
APRIL 18:
KGSO: 90/1976
KRDU: 95/1896
KFAY: 93/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 66/2006
KRDU: 64/1912
KFAY: 69/1934
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 63/2002
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 66/1921
APRIL 18:
KGSO: 66/1909
KRDU: 63/1941
KFAY: 67/2002
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/KREN
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
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