444
FXUS62 KRAH 121831
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...
1) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND LOW RH.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE LIKELY THIS WEEK, WITH SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
VERY HOT DAYS. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH SAT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND LOW RH.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROP INTO THE 25–30% THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK, PARTICULARLY
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RELATIVELY RELAXED—LIMITING PEAK WIND GUSTS TO THE 15–20
MPH RANGE, THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY IS
NOTEWORTHY. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY AND
WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW OFFICIAL INCREASED FIRE
DANGER OR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WETTING RAIN OCCURS. WITH NO MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION ON THE HORIZON, PERHAPS NOT UNTIL THE TAIL END OF
THE MONTH, A STATEWIDE BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NC
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WITH ALL BURNING, INCLUDING WITH
PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED PERMITS, PROHIBITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE LIKELY THIS WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE VERY HOT DAYS. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUE
THROUGH SAT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DANGEROUS
MULTI-DAY EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY BUILD FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEK, AS BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION,
HELPING TO DEFLECT MOST FRONTS AND PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS TO OUR W
AND N AND KEEPING US GENERALLY DRY UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. DAILY
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (BY 35-50
M) INTO AT LEAST SAT. PERIODS OF CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE, INCLUDING
LATE THU/THU NIGHT WHEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS BRING A DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NOW OFF CA) INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW. BUT
OTHERWISE, SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT, CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH HEAT
STRESS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW), WITH HIGHS
AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS OF WIDESPREAD 90S OVER CENTRAL NC IS INCREASING, ESPECIALLY FOR
WED TO SAT, AND THE LATEST NBM'S 75TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS AT RDU IS
MID-UPPER 90S DEGREES F EVERY DAY WED-SUN, ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES SHARPLY FOR SUN AS SOME MODELS BEGIN TO DIG LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, TAMPING DOWN THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE. REGARDLESS, THESE SUCCESSIVE DAYS OF PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED
HEAT MAY BE DANGEROUS FOR ALL POPULATIONS, BUT PARTICULARLY FOR
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND THOSE WORKING OR EXERCISING
OUTDOORS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH
A FEW AREAS OF MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ALONG
WITH SOME MARGINAL LLWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT
TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL NC LAST NIGHT AND
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING IS WASHING OUT. THE STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED BUT A FIELD
OF SCT TO BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3-4KFT HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL EXPAND WEST OVER DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. HARD TO DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE BUT THEY WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
(INCLUDING KFAY) AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT (INCLUDING KRWI AND KRDU). SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10KTS WITH THE FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 16KTS. WINDS WILL STAY UP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WHILE THE GUSTS WILL BE LESS COMMON A FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 6 TO 10KTS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT
(INCLUDING KINT, KGSO, AND KRDU). WITH MIXING, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 8 TO 12KTS ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 22KTS). A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. WHILE NOT
TECHNICALLY TRUE LLWS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
MIXED, THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS-LIKE IMPACTS OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE KINT AND KGSO TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME RECORDS FOR APRIL
KGSO: 95 ON 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 ON 4/23/1980 AND 4/28/1896
KFAY: 96 ON 4/12/1930
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 88/1930
KRDU: 89/1922
APRIL 14:
KGSO: 90/1922
KRDU: 91/1941
KFAY: 93/1922
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 88/2002
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 94/2006
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 90/1967
KRDU: 93/1896
KFAY: 92/1941
APRIL 18:
KGSO: 90/1976
KRDU: 95/1896
KFAY: 93/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KGSO: 61/2019
KRDU: 66/1930
APRIL 15:
KGSO: 65/2006
KRDU: 64/1993
APRIL 16:
KGSO: 66/2006
KRDU: 64/1912
KFAY: 69/1934
APRIL 17:
KGSO: 63/2002
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 66/1921
APRIL 18:
KGSO: 66/1909
KRDU: 63/1941
KFAY: 67/2002
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page