373
FXUS62 KRAH 261757
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
1) MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
2) MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY.
PATCHY RAIN PERSISTS OVER THE S AND E CWA, WITHIN MID LEVEL DPVA
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SW/WSW
THROUGH VA INTO FAR NE TN. THIS IS PRODUCING A SOMEWHAT MESSY SET OF
SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS, INCLUDING A BACKDOOR FRONT EXTENDING FROM
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA WESTWARD TO WEAKER
LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN VA, WITH A TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH THE W PIEDMONT OF NC. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
SLOWLY E AND SE TODAY, THE GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK DPVA ALOFT
WILL MEAN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OUR S AND E THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING. AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT OVER S-CENTRAL/SE VA DROPS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC, LOW LEVEL COOLING, STABILIZING, AND
CONDENSATION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, AS WELL AS A SUPPLEMENTAL CHANCE
FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRISK AND GUSTY WIND FROM
THE NNE AND NE IS ALSO LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT, LASTING THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES JUST TO OUR S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
LOW CLOUDS COMBINED WITH CAA (LEADING TO PLUMMETING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES) AND A SLOW PRECIP EXIT WILL FAVOR HIGHS TODAY FROM THE
LOW 60S NE TO THE MID 70S SW, AROUND 15 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY'S HIGHS AND ROUGHLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEAKENING CAA BY MON WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH
WITH STARTING THICKNESSES AROUND 30 M BELOW NORMAL, AND CONTINUED
PERIODS OF CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH MON WITH A PERSISTENT MESOHIGH/
STABLE POOL IN PLACE, HIGHS MON WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL,
RANGING FROM AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING AND A PLUME OF 1.5-2.0"
PW SHOULD RESULT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS,
DEPENDING ON THE STABILITY OF THE PRECEDING AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DECENT SIGNAL IN SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THAT THE MOST
RAINFALL MAY BE TO OUR NORTH (WITH THE STRONGER UPPER FORCING) AND
TO OUR SOUTH (IN THE RELATIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS), WITH SOME
DEGREE OF SPLIT OVER NC. AT THE MOMENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND 0.50" WITH THIS EVENT.
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TROUGHING
IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN US, THOUGH WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF COMPLEXITY OWING TO BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER
LOWS OVER CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US LATE IN THE WEEK, BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
DROUGHT-STRICKEN REGION, BUT THE TRACK IS UNCERTAINTY, AND THERE ARE
SCENARIOS WHERE IT REMAINS SUPPRESSED AND NC IS MOSTLY DRY. THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...
IN A COOL AND MOIST POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, MVFR CIGS ARE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH SOME LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN WAS STILL NOTED AS OF 17Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS
RESULTING IN SOME MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
AT 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 22 KTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS,
CIGS HAVE SLOWLY LIFTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIGHT SPOTS DEVELOPING
AND SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NOW OBSERVED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, NEAR THE KINT AND KGSO TERMINALS. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN LOCATIONS TRANSITIONING TO MARGINAL MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS
BEFORE SUNSET. THE DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KFAY TERMINAL WILL LINGER FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO RESULTING IN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FROM KFAY AND KRWI LATE THIS EVENING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND KRDU AND POSSIBLY KGSO LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW
STRATUS WILL FEATURE BASES AROUND 2-3KFT FEET AND IT IS STILL LITTLE
UNCLEAR IF SKIES WILL BE MORE BKN OR SCT BUT IN GENERAL, AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL MARGINALLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, A RATHER
STEADY WIND OF 8-12 KTS FROM THE NNE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
PRECLUDING ANY FOG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE LOW STRATUS WILL BREAK
UP MUCH FASTER ON MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MID MORNING OR SO.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MONDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A RETURN TO MORE
FAIR WEATHER ALBEIT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -BLAES
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/BLS
AVIATION...BLAES
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