167
FXUS62 KRAH 261807
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
207 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* DOWNWARD TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
1) MUCH COOLER TONIGHT, RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A FEW SYSTEMS THAT COULD
BRING MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL NC INTO EARLY MAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH COOLER TONIGHT, RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALOFT, A S/W WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WAS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS OF 16Z, WHILE A REINFORCING FRONT WAS SLIDING
SWD ACROSS THE SRN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND SRN COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD AND WEAKENING
MON/MON NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERS IN THE BEHIND THE REINFORCING
FRONT, WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS ALONG IT. IT IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY ANY THUNDER WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NC WITH THE SHOWERS GIVEN
THE EARLIER TIMING AND LOWER INSTABILITY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH HIGHS NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 DEGREES NE TO LOW 70S SW. THAT MAY BE OVERDONE WHERE RAIN
LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. NNELY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 MPH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFT AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT REMAIN
STIRRED/BREEZY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S EXPECTED. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MON AND TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A FEW
SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL NC INTO
EARLY MAY.
THE FORECAST FOR WED WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN. A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TUES EVENING NEGATIVELY TILTS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WED MORNING. THIS
WAVE ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER-LVL
JET STREAK WILL SUPPLY DEEP LIFT WITHIN A PLUME OF RICHER PWAT OF 1
TO 1.5 INCHES. REASONABLE LOW-END AMOUNTS SHOW AT LEAST MEASURABLE
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5". IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER-LVL MOISTURE BAND, CONTINUED MOIST AND WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS; ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TROUGHING
IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN US, THOUGH WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF COMPLEXITY OWING TO BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER
LOWS OVER CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US LATE IN THE WEEK, BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
DROUGHT-STRICKEN REGION, BUT THE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN, AND THERE ARE
SCENARIOS WHERE IT REMAINS SUPPRESSED AND NC IS MOSTLY DRY. THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF AIFS ENSEMBLE IS LIKELY
THE BEST CASE SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL NC, WHICH FEATURES A LOW TRACK
GENERALLY ACROSS GA/SC AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH 50-60%
PROBABILITIES OF > 0.5", MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH NC/SC BORDER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...
IN A COOL AND MOIST POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, MVFR CIGS ARE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH SOME LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN WAS STILL NOTED AS OF 17Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS
RESULTING IN SOME MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
AT 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 22 KTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS,
CIGS HAVE SLOWLY LIFTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIGHT SPOTS DEVELOPING
AND SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NOW OBSERVED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, NEAR THE KINT AND KGSO TERMINALS. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN LOCATIONS TRANSITIONING TO MARGINAL MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS
BEFORE SUNSET. THE DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KFAY TERMINAL WILL LINGER FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO RESULTING IN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FROM KFAY AND KRWI LATE THIS EVENING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND KRDU AND POSSIBLY KGSO LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW
STRATUS WILL FEATURE BASES AROUND 2-3KFT FEET AND IT IS STILL LITTLE
UNCLEAR IF SKIES WILL BE MORE BKN OR SCT BUT IN GENERAL, AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL MARGINALLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, A RATHER
STEADY WIND OF 8-12 KTS FROM THE NNE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
PRECLUDING ANY FOG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE LOW STRATUS WILL BREAK
UP MUCH FASTER ON MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MID MORNING OR SO.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MONDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A RETURN TO MORE
FAIR WEATHER ALBEIT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -BLAES
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/AS
AVIATION...BLAES
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