630
FXUS62 KRAH 270642
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
242 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...
1) MUCH COOLER TONIGHT, RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A FEW SYSTEMS THAT COULD
BRING MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL NC INTO EARLY MAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH COOLER TONIGHT, RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALOFT, A S/W WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WAS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS OF 16Z, WHILE A REINFORCING FRONT WAS SLIDING
SWD ACROSS THE SRN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND SRN COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD AND WEAKENING
MON/MON NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERS IN THE BEHIND THE REINFORCING
FRONT, WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS ALONG IT. IT IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY ANY THUNDER WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NC WITH THE SHOWERS GIVEN
THE EARLIER TIMING AND LOWER INSTABILITY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH HIGHS NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 DEGREES NE TO LOW 70S SW. THAT MAY BE OVERDONE WHERE RAIN
LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. NNELY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 MPH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFT AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT REMAIN
STIRRED/BREEZY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S EXPECTED. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MON AND TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A FEW
SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL NC INTO
EARLY MAY.
THE FORECAST FOR WED WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN. A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TUES EVENING NEGATIVELY TILTS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WED MORNING. THIS
WAVE ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER-LVL
JET STREAK WILL SUPPLY DEEP LIFT WITHIN A PLUME OF RICHER PWAT OF 1
TO 1.5 INCHES. REASONABLE LOW-END AMOUNTS SHOW AT LEAST MEASURABLE
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5". IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER-LVL MOISTURE BAND, CONTINUED MOIST AND WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS; ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. TROUGHING
IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN US, THOUGH WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF COMPLEXITY OWING TO BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER
LOWS OVER CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US LATE IN THE WEEK, BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
DROUGHT-STRICKEN REGION, BUT THE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN, AND THERE ARE
SCENARIOS WHERE IT REMAINS SUPPRESSED AND NC IS MOSTLY DRY. THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF AIFS ENSEMBLE IS LIKELY
THE BEST CASE SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL NC, WHICH FEATURES A LOW TRACK
GENERALLY ACROSS GA/SC AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH 50-60%
PROBABILITIES OF > 0.5", MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH NC/SC BORDER.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 242 AM MONDAY...
MVFR STRATUS PERSISTS THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE RESIDUAL NELY
GUSTINESS AT KRDU/KFAY. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. NELY SFC FLOW WILL PERSIST
TODAY, BUT EXPECT FLOW TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM SFC
WINDS.
OUTLOOK: A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER AT GSO/INT. A BETTER CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS STORMS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THU AND FRI.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/AS
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/KREN
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