490
FXUS62 KRAH 271743
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
143 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SPC INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...
1) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE.
THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING AS A LINE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO DECAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR WEST, A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE TRIAD. A
SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL,
MEANING THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE LREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS,
RAIN LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE END
TIMING IS A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR, WITH THE GEFS SHOWING A LONGER
DURATION LIGHT RAIN INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW RAIN ENDING BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS
ALSO COMBINED WITH SOME GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD
BE A SPLIT OF THE HEAVIER RAIN TO BOTH OUR NORTH AND SOUTH.
REGARDLESS, QPF VALUES LOOK TO BE LIGHT, WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF
EACH ENSEMBLE GENERALLY SHOWING LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. ANY EMBEDDED STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF GREATER RAINFALL TOTALS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
DISAGREE ON IF A LOW FORMS OFF THE NC COAST, WHICH IS MAKING THE
RAINFALL FORECAST UNCERTAIN. THIS IS ALSO SEEN IN THE LREF CLUSTER
ANALYSIS, WHERE ONLY 2 OF THE 4 CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING OVER 40% CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH TUE AND
FAVOR PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS IN CNTL NC, WITH AN ENELY SURFACE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL VEER TO SSWLY TUE AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION TO VFR WILL BE A CHANCE OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT INT/GSO
BETWEEN 12-18Z TUE, RELATED TO MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN AND OTHERWISE
MID-LEVEL CEILINGS REMNANT TO PREVIOUSLY-VIGOROUS, UPSTREAM
CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK: IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND ANOTHER AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CNTL NC WED MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HELOCK
AVIATION...MWS
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