684
FXUS62 KRAH 281631
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1231 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
1) DECAYING REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
2) MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
3) A COASTAL LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 236 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DECAYING REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY
PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY HAVE STARTED TO TRICKLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TN MOUNTAINS. OVERALL LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS MOST OF THIS CONVECTION LARGELY ERODING OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND DISSIPATING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE TRIAD DEPICT A RELATIVE DRY LAYER IN THE
800 TO 900 MB LEVELS, WITH SATURATION LARGELY FROM 700 MB UP. AS
SUCH, STILL EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT TO ONLY PRODUCE TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH. A FEW
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
AN INITIAL SHORT-WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LATEST HREF SIMULATES MORNING CONVECTION MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM ~12Z TO 18Z. REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
FORM THIS EARLY CONVECTION MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, IF DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, STRENGTHENING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER JET MAY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT.
WHILE SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE KINEMATICS MAY
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH INTO VA,
THE LATEST HREF DOES PINPOINT THE HIGHEST UPDRAFT HELICITY
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OVER MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS. AGAIN, WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH EARLY MORNING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN LINGERS, BUT THERE IS SURELY A SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS ZONAL FLOW MOVES IN ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A COASTAL LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT RAIN MAKER SHOULD COME FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MERGING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
REACH THE REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LOW
FORMING SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST, HOWEVER STRENGTH AND LOCATION IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS, THE CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD, MUCH
NEEDED RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS INCREASING SATURDAY. THE SPREAD IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS STILL LARGE, WITH THE MEAN OF THE GEFS SHOWING
THE REGION RECEIVING AROUND 1-1.2 INCH OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE SHOWS AROUND
0.4-0.7 INCH IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE HOWEVER
TRENDED UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY'S RUNS. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...
AN AREA OF MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS NOW OVER THE NC WRN PIEDMONT, TO IFR
ONES THROUGH ~18Z, MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS RDU WHILE OTHERWISE
LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SSWLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH SUNSET,
STRONGEST AND MOST FREQUENTLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.
IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND ANOTHER AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CNTL NC GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-16Z WED, FIRST
AT INT/GSO.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND POSSIBLY JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS
CNTL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI
NIGHT-SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/HELOCK
AVIATION...MWS
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