649
FXUS62 KRAH 290704
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 302 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED,
WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STRATIFORM RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 302 AM WEDNESDAY..
1) MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A STRONG SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS MORNING. A BIT FURTHER NORTH, A WEAKER SHORT-WAVE IS
GENERATING SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER IL/IN/OH. BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, THINK THAT THESE TWO
AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL LARGELY SPLIT CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHEST QPE
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE STILL LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL NC STARTING NEAR
SUNRISE AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN THINK IT MAY BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. REGARDLESS, RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING LIMITING DESTABLIZATION FOR A BIT.
AS WE ENTER THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, SUSPECT THAT WE'LL SEE SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD BASE, AND WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WEAK INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE WIND PROFILES
CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. LATEST RREFS AND HREF HELICITY
OUTPUT FAVOR LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLS (HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
NC/VA BORDER). AS SUCH, ANY ISOLATED STRONGER UPDRAFT COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. A SECONDARY AREA TO WATCH MAY BE IN
THE CHARLOTTE TO FAYETTEVILLE VICINITY WHERE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
BULLISH ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHICH
COULD TRIGGER STRONGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER, GIVEN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR CLOSER TO SUNDOWN, NOT ENTIRELY SURE
STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING LARGE HAIL WILL BE REALIZED.
LASTLY, WHILE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS, 0-1 KM SRH WILL PUSH >150 M2S2 POSSIBLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A BRIEF TORNADO.
ANY LINGER CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY ~03 TO 06Z.
2) EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED,
WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STRATIFORM RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US, ALONG WITH
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY, AS STRATIFORM RAIN AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-TO-
MID 60S, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
ON SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF OF A STALLED FRONT
OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE NC COAST,
BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. INSTABILITY WILL
BE VERY LOW WITH ONLY A FEW J/KG OF MUCAPE BEING SHOWN BY THE MEAN
OF THE LREF ALONG WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS. THUS, A COOL STRATIFORM
RAIN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 50TH PERCENTILES OF
THE ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING A DECENT SPREAD WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS, WITH THE GEFS NOW SHOWING LOWER TOTALS THAN THE EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE WHICH IS OPPOSITE OF WHAT WAS BEING DEPICTED EARLIER. IN A
24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THE GEFS IS SUGGESTING A
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.05 INCHES NORTH AND WEST TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES IN
THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE HAS A RANGE AROUND 0.1-
0.8 INCHES DURING THE SAME TIME. THIS IS A DECREASE IN QPF FROM THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST MEASURABLE
RAIN (0.01 INCH) FROM THE LREF FOR THE CWA RANGES FROM 60% IN THE
NORTHWEST TO 80% IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 146 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING SITES TO
SOCK BACK IN TO MVFR/IFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOME
CLEARING OF THE MORNING CLOUD DEBRIS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SOME SITES MAY RETURN TO VFR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL, BUT
IT APPEARS THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
GENERATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT'S IMPACTED BY THIS ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ANY
LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY ~03 TO 05Z.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/HELOCK
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/AS
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