217
FXUS62 KRAH 300531
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
131 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 127 AM THURSDAY...
1) LIGHT RAIN WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN SATURDAY WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW, THEN DRYING OUT
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 127 AM THURSDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1... LIGHT RAIN WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS PAST EVENING'S BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. IT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF CENTRAL
NC ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LAST
OBSERVED OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS. A FEW SITES HAVE GONE CALM ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, PROMPTING PATCHY FOG FORMATION. EXPECT A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT
SWEEPS DRIER AIR INTO OUR AREA. OTHERWISE, LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCV CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS AL/GA WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THROUGH ~18Z. A FEW
EMBEDDED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTORMS MAY PUSH ACROSS THE NC/SC
BORDER, BUT TSTORM CHANCES ARE GENERALLY PRETTY LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WIDESPREAD RAIN SATURDAY WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW, THEN
DRYING OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH AN OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAY
STRENGTHEN TO A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING MOST OF SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEP FORCING ALOFT FROM
THE MERGING OF TWO MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND CENTRAL NC IN THE RIGHT-
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK AND THE NORTHWEST FOOTPRINT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, THE
LREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS EXPECTED RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH IN THE
NW TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE SE. THE UPPER-END SCENARIO
SUGGESTS 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NW TO SE, WHILE THE LOWER-
END RANGES FROM 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES. THE LATEST FORECAST IS CLOSER TO
THE LREF ENSEMBLE MEAN. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE A SECONDARY ROUND OF RAIN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S, SUGGESTED
BY SOME OPERATIONAL MODELS, WELL OVER 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
UNDER COOL HIGH PRESSURE. A TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK STARTING MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY
SHOULD REACH THE 80S BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WED OR THU WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 102 AM THURSDAY...
THE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS LARGELY CLEARED EAST OF OUR TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN WAKE OF ITS EXIT, AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, A FEW SITES HAVE SHOWN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND ASSOCIATED REDUCED VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING. ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP AT MOST TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE, AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM ~13Z TO 18Z TODAY. CEILINGS
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR WITH THIS RAIN, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES WHILE IT PUSHES EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL ACCOMPANY AN AREA LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
ON SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/KREN
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/AS
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