509
FXUS62 KRAH 010622
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
222 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* BIT OF A DOWNWARD TREND IN QPF FOR SATURDAY'S SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 218 AM FRIDAY...
1) CHILLY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW LIFTS ALONG THE NC COAST.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TRENDING ABOVE BY TUE WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WED-THU
3) MARGINAL FIRE CONCERNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITHIN A DRY AND GUSTY
AIRMASS
DISCUSSION
AS OF 218 AM FRIDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1... CHILLY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTS ALONG THE NC COAST.
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTED A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE NC/SC BORDER. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
FRONT PRIMARILY IN SC. POST-FRONTAL NNELY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO ELY AND EVENTUALLY SLY AS THIS WEAK BOUNDARY MIGRATES BACK
NORTH. INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN (AND PERHAPS AS NORTH AS RALEIGH)
THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW AND
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY WILL MAX OUT AROUND 70 WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
AS WE PIVOT TO LATER TONIGHT, INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW WITH BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL BETWEEN ~06Z SATURDAY AND 00Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER WRT TO QPF
OVER OUR AREA. THE HREF AND RREFS LPMM OUTPUT ONLY HIGHLIGHT A
MAXIMUM OF SIX TO SEVEN TENTHS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST TO JUST A TENTH
IN THE TRIAD. REGARDLESS, SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN CHILLY WITH
PERSISTENT NELY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. RAIN SHOULD
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING, WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS MAY STIR A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT,
WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING, THE CHILLY AIRMASS SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TRENDING ABOVE BY
TUE WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WED-THU
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SATURDAY'S SYSTEM, COOL HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
TN VALLEY REGION SUNDAY WILL BUILD EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S, SOME 10-12 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RATHER QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RETURN FLOW TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO
MIDWEEK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO TREND FROM
NEAR NORMAL MONDAY TO ABOVE BY MIDWEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S TUE AND WED.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES MAY VERY WELL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
WE ARE WATCHING ANOTHER MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT SLATED TO
APPROACH EITHER WED OR THU. THE 12Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON
THE TIMING, WITH THE TOP TWO CLUSTER SOLUTIONS FOCUSING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ON THU, WHILE THE OTHER TWO CLUSTER
SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEPER AND FASTER TROUGH, BRINGING SHOWERS AS EARLY
AS WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY STRONG FOR EARLY
MAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS
APPROACHING 70-75 KT, SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHERE
LOW TO PERHAPS MID 60S DEWPOINTS COULD BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE.
NEARLY ALL OF THE AI SEVERE CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE THUS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE WED OR THU EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT IF THE TROUGH CAN MATERIALIZE. THAT IS A BIG IF THIS
FAR OUT, BUT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON AS WE
GET CLOSER.
KEY MESSAGE 3... MARGINAL FIRE CONCERNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITHIN A
DRY AND GUSTY AIRMASS
AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY, RETURN FLOW
WILL SET IN ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER, RESULTING IN LOW RH LEVELS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AS A RESULT, WITH THE BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, MARGINAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS ON
SATURDAY, THIS MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 131 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. WHILE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED,
THESE SHOWERS COULD LINGER AROUND KFAY THIS MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ELY AND THEN SLY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE KFAY VICINITY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THESE SHOWERS CLOSER TO KRDU AND KRWI,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MAKE A MENTION OF -RA AT THESE SITES IN
THIS TAF PACKAGE. STEADIER RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM
SATURDAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ANY OF OUR
TERMINALS TILL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR TO IFR THEN LIFR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR SUNDAY. THE LONGEST
DURATION CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE AROUND FAY/RWI/RDU, WILL ACCOMPANY AN
AREA LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/KREN
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/MWS
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