428
FXUS62 KRAH 021749
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
149 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 149 PM SATURDAY...
1) RAINFALL ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AT ALL SITES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TONIGHT.
2) MARGINAL FIRE CONCERNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITHIN A DRY AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY AIRMASS.
3) A COLD FRONT COULD BRING STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 149 PM SATURDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1... RAINFALL ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT ALL SITES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TONIGHT.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD PLUME OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE, 12Z
OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IT STILL REMAINS IN THIS GENERAL AREA
AS OF 17Z. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO RIDE
ALONG THIS FRONT, WORKING IN TANDEM WITH BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO
PRODUCE THE RAINFALL WE'VE SEEN SINCE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SEVERAL SPOTS HAVE SEEN 0.30 TO 0.40+"
OF RAIN. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STEADY RAIN TO COME, A STORM
TOTAL FORECAST CLOSE TO 0.50" SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE FOR THESE
SPOTS. NATURALLY, THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIP AMOUNTS TO
THE WEST WHICH IS REFLECTED IN OBSERVED AMOUNTS AROUND 0.01 TO 0.02"
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SINCE MIDNIGHT.
THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY, SO LOW THAT THERE IS
AN INCREASINGLY LIKELY CHANCE THAT FAY WILL SET A NEW RECORD FOR
COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THIS DATE. RDU'S COOL MAX TEMP RECORD
WAS ALSO IN JEOPARDY FOR A BIT BUT IS NO LONGER THREATENED BASED ON
16Z OBS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD SPECIFICS.
A CLEARLY DEFINED BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO
FORSYTH AND DAVIDSON CO'S AS OF 17Z AND OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING
SPRINKLES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, RAINFALL IS RAPIDLY COMING TO AN
END IN THOSE AREAS. THERE ARE INCREASING GAPS IN THE STRATIFORM
PRECIP AREA ACROSS CENTRAL SC WHICH IS ALSO WELL CAPTURED BY THE 12Z
HREF AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF IN THE TRIANGLE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS JUST AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE SKIES WON'T CLEAR OUT ENTIRELY
TONIGHT, EXPECT RAPID CLEARING AFTER SUNSET WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON, ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER 30S CAN'T BE RULED
OUT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CHATHAM/EASTERN RANDOLPH.
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS WELL,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MARGINAL FIRE CONCERNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITHIN A
DRY AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY AIRMASS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY-MID NEXT
WEEK, SWLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE. IN THE LOW-
LEVELS DURING THE DAYTIME, THE 925-MB FLOW MAY RANGE FROM 15-25 KTS,
HIGHEST ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. AS HAPPENS QUITE OFTEN IN THESE
REGIMES DURING THE SPRINGTIME, THE MOISTURE RETURN IS INITIALLY SLOW
TO RECOVER. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 30S TO
MID 40S OVER THE PIEDMONT MON AND TUE. DURING THIS TIME AS WELL,
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE, PERHAPS 25-30
MPH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT ON TUE. WHILE THE LATEST FORECAST
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW IFD CRITERIA, THE
WORST-CASE SCENARIO SHOWS THAT IT ALSO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
THE MOST FAVORABLE FIRE DANGER MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
WHERE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AND HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, STARTING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S MONDAY AND REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S BY
WEDNESDAY. SOME UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE WED, WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 1400M.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A COLD FRONT COULD BRING STRONG STORMS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT ON ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NC, TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THE LOW, AND FROPA TIMING, HOWEVER SOME VARIANCE REMAINS AND
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES WITH TIME BEYOND WED.
ALOFT, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
GENERALLY SWING EWD ACROSS THE CNTL AND ERN CONUS FROM TUE TO FRI.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THERE IS STILL SOME
ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM, LIKELY STEMMING FROM THE POTENTIAL
INTERACTION OR PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WITH A SOUTHERN
CLOSED LOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL THE SYSTEMS CAN BE BETTER
SAMPLED. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT IN THE FORM OF INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED. THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL STALL AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NEWD ALONG IT, PROGRESSING FROM THE ARKLATEX ON WED AFT TO ERN
NY BY THU AFT. THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES ON THU WRT THE LOW
TRACK AND STRENGTH, AS WELL AS THE EWD FRONT PROGRESSION. GENERALLY,
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU AFT OR EVE, WITH COOL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST US IN ITS WAKE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AREA-WIDE THU MORN INTO EARLY AFT. EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF STORM AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WOULD HELP LIMIT THE
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THU AFT/EVE. WILL
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE COMING DAYS, BUT FOR NOW THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE HOW THINGS MAY UNFOLD
ON THU.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
TAF PERIOD: INT, GSO, AND RDU HAVE REMAINED VFR SO FAR TODAY, AND
THERE IS NO REASON TO EXPECT THAT ANY CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT THESE THREE TERMINALS AS THE SHIELD OF RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS WITH A COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, EXPECT
INTERMITTENT IFR CEILINGS AT FAY AS RAIN COMES TO AN END, ALONG WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH FAY AND RWI. RAIN WILL COME TO AN
END AT THESE TWO SITES BEFORE SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. FOR ALL FIVE TERMINALS, EXPECT THE WIND TO BACK
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AT
WHICH POINT SOME RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST AT INT/GSO/RDU. SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AT INT/GSO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AT OTHER TERMINALS
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 2:
KRDU: 53/1939 (THIS RECORD IS SAFE SINCE RDU REACHED 54 AT
NOON)
KFAY: 61/1963
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEINS/KC
AVIATION...GREEN
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