992
FXUS62 KRAH 161032
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LITTLE TO NO CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
1) A SUB-TROPICAL TO LOWER MID-LATITUDE HIGH WILL FAVOR HOT,
SEASONABLY MOIST/HUMID, AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WED.
2) A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE THROUGH CNTL NC AND
FOCUS SHOWERS/STORMS THU, WITH FOLLOWING COLD AIR DAMMING PROBABLE
FOR FRI.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A SUB-TROPICAL TO LOWER MID-LATITUDE HIGH WILL
FAVOR HOT, SEASONABLY MOIST/HUMID, AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
WED.
A MID-LEVEL, SUB-TROPICAL HIGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC STATES, STRENGTHEN, AND LINGER NEAR THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH NEXT MON-TUE, WHEN ASSOCIATED 500-700 MB HEIGHTS ARE
LIKELY TO EXCEED THE MAX MOVING AVERAGE AND POSSIBLY DAILY RECORDS
AT GSO AND MHX. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH
AND SURROUNDING RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LOSE INFLUENCE BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK, DESPITE CONTINUED LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN THE
PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THAT TIME.
AT THE SURFACE, AND BENEATH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
AND SURROUNDING RIDGE ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST, WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND IN
THE LEE OF THE SRN AND CNTL APPALACHIANS AND A SEA BREEZE WILL
PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF CNTL NC EACH LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT CONVECTION WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH
AND/OR FROM OFF THE APPALACHIANS ON WED TO FORCE A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT BY WED EVE-NIGHT.
WARM AND SEASONABLY MOIST SSWLY/SWLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND ACROSS CNTL NC WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
LWR 90S AND WITH MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S-LWR 60S, BUT WITH
ASSOCIATED HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WHILE
UNDER THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ALSO POSSIBLY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDING THE ONLY APPARENT FORCING MECHANISMS
FOR AROUND A 10 PERCENT, DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED PROBABILITY OF A PULSE
CELL ALONG EACH UNTIL PROBABILITIES INCREASE INTO CHANCE RANGE OVER
THE NW PIEDMONT LATE WED-WED NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE THROUGH
CNTL NC AND FOCUS SHOWERS/STORMS THU, WITH FOLLOWING COLD AIR
DAMMING PROBABLE FOR FRI.
REGARDLESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES IN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE GREAT LAKES,
MODEL GUIDANCE OVERWHELMINGLY SUGGEST THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ALONG
THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL WEAKEN AND LOSE
INFLUENCE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST WEAKLY FALLING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
STRENGTHENING OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT ON ITS WRN PERIPHERY BY MID TO LATE
WEEK. THROUGH THE SAME TIME, A MID/UPR-LEVEL CYCLONE INVOF THE
LABRADOR SEA WILL FORCE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
QC. THOSE DEVELOPMENTS ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE MAINTENANCE AND PROBABLE
STRENGTHENING OF CP HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CNTL AND ERN CANADA AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THAT
HIGH WILL PROPEL AND BE LED BY A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL
LIKELY SETTLE ACROSS CNTL NC ON THU AND YIELD FOLLOWING COLD AIR
DAMMING IN THE LEE OF THE CNTL AND SRN APPALACHIANS FRI-FRI NIGHT.
THE PROBABILITY OF MEANINGFUL RAIN WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM FRONTAL
CONVECTION ON THU, WITH COOLER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS, AND A CHANCE
OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN IN CAD, TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...
TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PASSING NEAR RDU/RWI,
WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS UP TO
15 KT ARE EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE WIND WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AROUND SUNSET. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
LINGERING AFTER SUNRISE AT FAY, AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THAT.
OUTLOOK: IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD; OTHERWISE DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BY WHICH TIME SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 17: KGSO: 94/1915 KRDU: 92/1947 KFAY: 97/1941
MAY 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911
MAY 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022
MAY 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018
MAY 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022
MAY 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022
MAY 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...GREEN
CLIMATE...RAH
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