899
FXUS62 KRAH 162339
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
739 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* JUST A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY ISOLATED SHOWER SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...
1) HOT WEATHER AND MAINLY DRY WITH LOW TO MIDDLE 90S SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2) INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AND TRENDING LOWER IN HIGHS WED ONWARD,
BUT THE FINER DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT WEATHER AND MAINLY DRY WITH LOW TO MIDDLE 90S
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOMALOUS RIDGING EXTENDING WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST US IS FORECAST
TO BE IN PLACE FROM TOMORROW THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA FROM THE NBM CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD (70-PERCENT AND GREATER) OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
90 DEGREES DURING THIS STRETCH. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE TO
VALUES TYPICAL FOR LATE JULY, SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. THE
HEAT RISK CATEGORY REACHES A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) THRESHOLD
DURING THIS TIME WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S AT TIMES IN
THE AFTERNOON. AS WE SAW IN APRIL DURING THE TWO HEAT WAVE EVENTS,
EARLY SEASON HEAT CAN RESULT IN A RAPID RISE IN HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES DUE TO PEOPLE BEING LESS ACCUSTOMED TO THESE CONDITIONS.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG SUBTLE, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OF THE SEA-BREEZE
AND A LEE TROUGH WEST OF THE PIEDMONT.
FOR OUR SUNDAY, TOMORROW, THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY
FAIRLY STEEP, WITH OVER 8C/KM, WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE, ALBEIT WITH A
NOTABLE CAPPING INVERSION WITHIN THE RIDGE. A DECAYING EASTWARD-
MOVING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN EASTERN GA AND UPSTATE SC WILL
LIKELY FORCE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. THE NEWER HIGH-RES
REFS ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED STORMS IN AND AROUND
CENTRAL NC, PERHAPS IN RELATION TO A FEW CELLS BREAKING THE CAP
WHERE A TONGUE OF HIGHER LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS SET UP WITHIN PW'S OF
1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. THE OVERALL CHANCE ON SUN IS LOW, BUT A STRAY
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS MAY COME LATE
WED WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND RESULTANT STORM OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS UPSTREAM.
KEY MESSAGE 2... INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AND TRENDING LOWER IN HIGHS
WED ONWARD, BUT THE FINER DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN.
THE LONG-RANGE LREF ENSEMBLE AND CORRESPONDING DETERMINISTIC
SCENARIOS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE. THE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A GRADUAL TREND OF HEIGHT FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO
CANADA. AS THAT HAPPENS, A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE EAST FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THAT FRONT, IF IT WERE
TO APPROACH AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SHOULD FAVOR INCREASED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK. THE WETTEST PERIOD IN THE
GUIDANCE IS CENTERED AROUND THU, WHEN THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MAY
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH. THE LREF ENSEMBLE SHOWS MANY MEMBERS
INDICATING INCREASINGLY WET WEATHER THU INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A
RESULT OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING INTO
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. BUT THE MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL BE
KEY IN THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME AS IT RELATES TO HOW MUCH QPF WE GET,
WHICH STILL SHOWS HIGH SPREAD. AT THE SURFACE, ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE-SEASON COLD AIR DAMMING LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
CLUSTERS INDICATING 1024-1028MB HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAIN A SET OF OTHER SOLUTIONS
WHICH SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, MAKING
THESE DETAILS FAR FROM CERTAIN. FOR NOW, EXPECT THAT UPTICK IN STORM
CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWER HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO 80S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 739 PM SATURDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z/MON.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, MAINLY AROUND KFAY.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR STRATUS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS
(KFAY/KRWI. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED.
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A CLASSICAL-CAD PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/RAIN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 17: KGSO: 94/1915 KRDU: 92/1947 KFAY: 97/1941
MAY 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911
MAY 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022
MAY 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018
MAY 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022
MAY 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022
MAY 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN
AVIATION...BADGETT/SWIGGETT
CLIMATE...RAH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page