211
FXUS62 KRAH 182259
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
1) HOT AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID-WEEK, HIGHEST ON THURSDAY, AND LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE (700MB HEIGHTS WELL
EXCEEDING THE DAILY MAX AT GSO, MHX, CHS, AND RNK), AND STRONG CAP
AT THE BASE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (ASSOCIATED WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE) SAMPLED IN THE 12Z RAOB DATA
OVER CAROLINAS AND PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST, WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
CAPPED AND VOID OF PRECIPITATION AMIDST SEASONABLY MOIST DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WARM TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE MID/LOW-LVLS WILL
EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WHEN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REGULARLY ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES BY MID-AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CENTRAL NC'S POSITION WITHIN THE DESCRIBED WEATHER PATTERN
ABOVE, THERE ARE MINIMAL FAILURE MODES AND REASONABLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED. MINIMAL
MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS OVER THE CAROLINAS, AND ADJUSTED HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW
TRIPLE-DIGITS, BUT STILL REACH INTO THE MID-90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS KIND OF EARLY-SEASON HEAT CAN STILL BE UNEXPECTEDLY DANGEROUS,
AS PEOPLE HAVE NOT YET BECOME ACCLIMATED TO THE HOT WEATHER. THE
DAILY EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT MODERATE (LEVEL
2 OF 4) TODAY THROUGH WED, BUT MAY REACH MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) IN
URBAN AREAS AROUND THE RTP. THIS KIND OF HEAT IS QUITE UNUSUAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HAS HISTORICALLY LED TO HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT
ILLNESS, WITH SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS AND THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE. AND WITH JUST A MODEST BREEZE AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY, THE WBGT INDEX WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED, SO
SPENDING TIME IN THE SHADE IS ENCOURAGED, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
WORKING OR EXERCISING OUTDOORS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID-WEEK, HIGHEST ON THURSDAY,
AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION WED/WED
NIGHT AS A S/W TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US/MID-ATLANTIC. THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE MAY ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT, WITH SEVERAL S/W DISTURBANCES
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON WED, WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH,
REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON THU. A BRIEF CAD MAY SET UP THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US RIDGES SWD INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO LIFT NWD BACK ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT,
HOWEVER THE SPREAD IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INCREASES BEYOND FRI AND
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THEREAFTER.
PRECIPITATION: THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COULD SEE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS AS EARLY AS WED EVENING, HOWEVER THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL COME THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS
IT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WARM
AIR ADVECTING IN ABOVE THE COOLER, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI OVER CENTRAL NC.
ASSUMING THE WEDGE ERODES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD ACROSS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS THU WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE CONVECTION AHEAD/ALONG IT. FOR NOW, EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH. THERE IS A LARGE BUST
POTENTIAL WRT HIGHS ON FRI GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CAD TO BRIEFLY
SET UP AND POSSIBLE CONTINUED RAIN INTO IT. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES NW TO LOW/MID 80S SOUTH, BUT WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. LOWS THU AND FRI NIGHTS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD
00Z/19 MAY.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS.
THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY SURROUNDING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND BREEZY NE WINDS. BRIEF CLASSICAL CAD WILL LIKELY
BRING SUB-VFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS BEHIND THE FROPA THAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL CAD REGIME AT
INT/GSO AND POTENTIALLY RDU. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY MVFR TO NIGHTLY IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911
MAY 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022
MAY 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018
MAY 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 KFAY: 75/1930
MAY 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022
MAY 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/10
AVIATION...BADGETT/AS
CLIMATE...RAH
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