319
FXUS62 KRAH 201649
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1248 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* HIGHS THU CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER, DUE TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
BACKDOOR FRONT.
* LATEST NBM STILL LOOKS TOO WARM FOR FRI HIGHS IN THE NW/TRIAD, SO
HAVE HELD HIGHS ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) CONTINUED VERY HOT TODAY, AND THU NOW LOOKS ALMOST AS WARM FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
2) WE'LL ENTER A WET PATTERN STARTING THU AFTERNOON, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEDGE
SETUP WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS FRI, PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CONTINUED VERY HOT TODAY, AND THU NOW LOOKS ALMOST
AS WARM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WE'LL SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY, AS
PERSISTENCE RULES, GIVEN LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH THAT WE'LL SEE CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY
HOT WEATHER, AS STRONG RIDGING NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS PERSISTS, INCLUDING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
95TH-99TH PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO THE HREF. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
HOLD AROUND 20 M ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, FAVORING HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE LOW-MID 90S, WITH ISOLATED UPPER 90S. WE'LL STILL SEE A LOWERING
OF DEWPOINTS WITH DEEP MIXING, SUCH THAT APPARENT TEMPS WILL HOLD
UNDER 100F, HOWEVER THE HEAT RISK WILL AGAIN BE AT LEVEL 2 OF 4
(MODERATE), WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF LEVEL 3 OF 4 (HIGH), INDICATING
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS HEAT THAT COULD LEAD TO HEAT ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY
FOR MORE SENSITIVE OR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. AND THE INTENSE
SUNSHINE AND A GENERALLY LIGHT BREEZE WILL AGAIN ELEVATE THE WBGT
INDEX. AS SUCH, IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT WATER BREAKS, SPENDING TIME
RESTING IN THE SHADE IS ENCOURAGED, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WORKING OR
EXERCISING OUTDOORS.
WE STILL EXPECT A BACKDOOR FRONT TO APPROACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER
THU, HOWEVER THE MODELS CONTINUE A GRADUAL SLOWING TREND, WITH THE
FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA S
OF THE FRONT (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND S OF HWY 64) TO HEAT UP,
GIVEN THE STILL-HIGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES NEAR 15 M ABOVE NORMAL,
ALTHOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON
(ALONG WITH LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS) SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
UNDER TODAY'S HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW-MID 80S NEAR THE VA
BORDER RANGING TO THE LOW 90S IN OUR FAR S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WE'LL ENTER A WET PATTERN STARTING THU AFTERNOON,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A WEDGE SETUP WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS FRI, PARTICULARLY IN
THE PIEDMONT.
FIRST, REGARDING TEMPS FRI, THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THU NIGHT, WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AS ITS CENTER SHIFTS FROM THE N GREAT LAKES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS SOURCE
HIGH IS FAIRLY STRONG, ~1035 MB OVER SE QUEBEC BY LATE FRI NIGHT,
WITH CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AT ITS CORE. AND IT WILL
BE BRIEFLY ANCHORED BY CONFLUENT FLOW FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING NARROW
RIDGE ALOFT, WHICH WILL FAVOR A CAD EVENT WITH WEDGING DOWN THROUGH
THE PIEDMONT FRI. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE NBM10PCT AND MEAN
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR FRI HIGHS ACROSS THE N AND W PIEDMONT,
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FROM INT/GSO TO
TDF/HNZ, MID-UPPER 70S FROM ALBEMARLE THROUGH THE TRIANGLE REGION TO
ROCKY MOUNT, AND LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE SE CWA. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO
BE TWEAKED DOWNWARD IN OUR FAR NW ON SAT AND EVEN SUN AS WELL, IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STUBBORN COOL/STABLE POOL LINGERING
OVER THE PIEDMONT.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES, WHILE THE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY, WE'RE
CONFIDENT THAT WE'RE ENTERING A WET SPELL WITH FAIRLY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES OVERALL FOR SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY SPOT WILL SEE
RAIN EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE N STARTING THU AFTERNOON, THEN THIS
PRECIP SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE
BREAKDOWN OF OUR CURRENT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASINGLY WEAKLY-PERTURBED MID LEVEL SW FLOW FROM N MEXICO ACROSS
TX AND THE MID SOUTH ACROSS NC, PROVIDING SHOTS OF MID LEVEL DPVA
ACTING ON PW VALUES OF 125-200% OF NORMAL, ALONG WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 295-305K SOURCED FROM
BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH (PERHAPS DELAYED BY A LINGERING STABLE POOL IN
THE TRIAD), PLACING US IN A WARM SECTOR IN FLOW FROM THE S AND SW
FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. LOCALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT, AS STRENGTHENING SW 850 MB FLOW
AND INCREASING ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HEAVIER
RAIN AND PROPAGATING CELLS ON THE SW SIDE OF CONVECTION. THE OVERALL
CAPE AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW END THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, THUS NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WITH THIS PERSISTENT LONG AND WAVY SW FLOW FROM N MEXICO INTO THE
CAROLINAS COMBINED WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FRI THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. WHILE THIS WOULD PUT A DAMPER
ON THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND, IT WOULD BE A WELCOME RESPITE FROM OUR
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1248 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. A
FEW LIGHT GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS OR SO HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. SOME STIRRING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT MARGINAL LLWS, BUT
THINK THE THREAT SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED, IF AT ALL.
THERE'S A BIT OF A MIXED BAG AS FAR AS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG AND OR
STRATUS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A FEW TEMPO
GROUPS AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LOWER CEILINGS AND
MIST/REDUCED VISBYS. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH THOUGH.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON VIA A SHORT-WAVE ALOFT AND AN ADVANCING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, HIGH-RES GUIDANCE GENERALLY HOLDS OFF ON
PRECIPITATION AT ALL TERMINALS TILL NEAR OR JUST AFTER 18Z. WILL
HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY RESTRICTIONS TILL THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTY NELY SFC WINDS. SUB-VFR CEILINGS ALSO LOOK
TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY IN THE TRIAD AND POTENTIALLY RDU AS A CAD
REGIME LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION. DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 20:
KGSO: 95/1917
KRDU: 96/2022
KFAY: 99/2022
MAY 21:
KRDU: 96/1941
KFAY: 99/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 20:
KGSO: 68/2022
KRDU: 69/2019
KFAY: 71/2022
MAY 21:
KGSO: 67/2022
KRDU: 71/1898
KFAY: 71/2025
MAY 22:
KFAY: 73/2004
MAY 23:
KFAY: 72/2011
MAY 24:
KRDU: 70/2011
KFAY: 72/2000
MAY 25:
KGSO: 70/2019
KRDU: 71/2019
KFAY: 71/2019
MAY 26:
KGSO: 70/2019
KRDU: 73/2011
KFAY: 75/2004
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/HELOCK
CLIMATE...RAH
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