738
FXUS62 KRAH 202258
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MADE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) CONTINUED HOT THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES PERSISTING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A
CAD WEDGE IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CONTINUED HOT THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE AND SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED AN UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
FURTHER OFFSHORE, A SFC LOW WAS EVIDENT JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE. HERE LOCALLY, LIGHT WSWLY SFC FLOW CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPS HAVE LARGELY PUSHED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
EXPECT A FEW MORE DEGREES TO SQUEEZE OUT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME THIS EVENING, BUT A LITTLE STIRRING MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS GO CALM, PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES WOULD BE DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2... RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH A CAD WEDGE IN PLACE.
ALOFT, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK S/W DISTURBANCE WED NIGHT/THU AND
WITH A LOW LINGERING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE MAY
ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT, WITH SEVERAL S/W DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AGAIN OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, A S/W OR TWO
CLIPPING THE AREA IN THE MEANTIME. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THU AFT/EVE. A CAD AIR MASS SHOULD SET UP THU NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND OFFSHORE RIDGES SWD INTO THE AREA,WITH
WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE COOL, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. STILL EXPECT THE WEDGE TO
ERODE SOMETIME SAT OR SAT NIGHT, WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NNWWD BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GFS KEEPS THE WEDGE LOCKED IN OVER THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO SUN. THE SPREAD IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
INCREASES BEYOND SAT, WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND FORECAST
IMPLICATIONS FOR CENTRAL NC.
PRECIPITATION: THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE THU ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ABOVE THE
COOLER, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT OVER CENTRAL NC. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
WEDGE, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (CHARACTER MAY VARY
ACROSS THE AREA) SAT-MON, WITH TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY THE
PRIMARY FACTORS DRIVING THE PRECIP UNCERTAINTY. WHERE/WHEN THE WEDGE
ERODES AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY, WHILE RAIN WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF IT. DO NOT
EXPECT A WASHOUT FOR SUN-TUE AND THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAY
BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL SPREAD, BUT THERE WILL
BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME TIME/LOCATION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS THU WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE CONVECTION AHEAD/ALONG IT. FOR NOW, EXPECT THE RAIN TO
ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFT/EVE, SO HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 80S
NORTH TO LOW/MID 90S SOUTH. THE CAVEAT IS THAT IF THE CLOUD COVER,
SHOWERS, AND FRONT ARRIVE EARLIER THOSE HIGHS COULD BE A BIT
OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE IS A LARGE BUST
POTENTIAL WRT HIGHS ON FRI AND SAT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CAD TO
SET UP LINGER, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS CONTINUED RAIN INTO IT. FOR
NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW/MID 80S
SOUTH, BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHS COULD
BE OFF BY 5-10 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS OF
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT AND LOW/MID 60S OVER THE TRIANGLE ON FRI. ON SAT, WITH THE
WEDGE LINGERING, HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW 70S NW
TO MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS THU AND FRI NIGHTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID
50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT TIMING OF THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE WEDGE ERODES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD.
THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS
THU MORNING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF RDU, FAY, AND RWI. AS WITH
THE PRIOR FORECAST, THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
THREAT. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS AT FAY/RWI, BUT THE SIGNAL IS NOT
CONSISTENT WITHIN THE INDIVIDUAL HREF MEMBERS. OUR LATEST THINKING
FAVORS THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR STRATUS AT RWI AND SECONDLY AT
FAY. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS AT RDU. THE LATEST FORECAST IS LITTLE
CHANGED BUT DOES INCLUDE A PREVAIL MVFR CONDITION AT RWI UNTIL 13Z.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THU AFTERNOON INTO THU
EVENING. STORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN WESTERN NC AND
VA, SLOWLY ADVANCING SSE ALONG STORM OUTFLOWS. HREF MEMBERS INDICATE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STORMS AND RESTRICTIONS AT GSO/INT AND RDU
IN THE 19-00Z TIME FRAME AND THE LATEST FORECAST INCLUDES TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CONDITIONS. STORMS MAY APPROACH RWI CLOSER TO THE END
OF THE PERIOD AND MAY NOT REACH FAY UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED, MAINLY AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH GUSTY NELY SFC WINDS. SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP POST-
FRONTAL THU NIGHT AND PERSIST POTENTIALLY INTO SAT OVER MOST
TERMINALS AS A CAD REGIME LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION. DAILY
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 20:
KGSO: 95/1917
KRDU: 96/2022
KFAY: 99/2022
MAY 21:
KRDU: 96/1941
KFAY: 99/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 20:
KGSO: 68/2022
KRDU: 69/2019
KFAY: 71/2022
MAY 21:
KGSO: 67/2022
KRDU: 71/1898
KFAY: 71/2025
MAY 22:
KFAY: 73/2004
MAY 23:
KFAY: 72/2011
MAY 24:
KRDU: 70/2011
KFAY: 72/2000
MAY 25:
KGSO: 70/2019
KRDU: 71/2019
KFAY: 71/2019
MAY 26:
KGSO: 70/2019
KRDU: 73/2011
KFAY: 75/2004
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/10
AVIATION...KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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