923
FXUS62 KRAH 230116
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
916 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* CONTINUED INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES, THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING
THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ON AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
1) COOL AND RAINY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH A CAD WEDGE IN PLACE. SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE WEDGE WILL BE WARMER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
2) SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM
WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
3) A FRONT THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... COOL AND RAINY OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH A CAD WEDGE IN PLACE. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE WEDGE WILL BE WARMER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING: A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A COOL AIR DAMMING WEDGE
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, COOL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
LOW-TO-MID 70S, WHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS TRIGGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN, COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING: THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME DISAGREEMENT—WITH SOME SOLUTIONS FAVORING LIGHTER RAIN
OVERNIGHT AND OTHERS DEPICTING A MORE ROBUST SCENARIO WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS—THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE A STEADY INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES,
RANGING FROM WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, NORTHEAST FLOW HAS
ALLOWED FOR COLD-AIR DAMMING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE
THE WEDGE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY RETREAT TO THE NORTH AND
BRING CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR, THE TIMING
THAT THE WEDGE FRONT RETREATS IS SOMETHING THAT IS TRICKY FOR
COMPUTER MODELS - AND THERE IS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW'S
TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERING THE MODELS USUALLY SHOW CAD RETREATING TOO
QUICKLY, WILL GO WITH A SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION THAT KEEPS COOLER AIR
PINNED INTO THE TRIAD THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM UP A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE TRIAD, WHILE THE
TRIANGLE SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S AND FAYETTEVILLE INTO THE LOW
80S. AFTER THE FRONT RETREATS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGHS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 80S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A FRONT THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TRIGGER THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, ONCE
AGAIN FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS. A STRONGER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD APPROACH WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THE DAY 2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DOES NOT SHOW A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THESE COUNTIES. BY THE TIME THE WEDGE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF
THE REGION, LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE A WIDE SWATH
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND ALL THE WAY SOUTHWEST INTO
TEXAS. WHILE THERE WILL NO LONGER BE A WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS,
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, GENERALLY DRAPED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, CONTINUING TO PUMP WARM, MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD DROP
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD PUT CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ONTO THE DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND BRING A
REDUCTION IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A BROAD AREA OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 849 PM FRIDAY...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH NELY SFC FLOW.
CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS LARGELY FIZZLED OUT WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
INTO CENTRAL NC. SOME DEEPER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY REACHING OUR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT, BUT SUSPECT ANY THUNDER WILL LARGELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KFAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THROUGH DAY BREAK SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT
KINT/KGSO FROM 06 TO 12Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY SPILL OVER
TOWARDS KFAY/KRDU/KRWI. SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI WITH THIS CONVECTION.
CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR AT KFAY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT ELSEWHERE
SHOULD REMAIN SOCKED IN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE CAD REGIME WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BUT LOW STRATUS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. DAILY
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 22:
KFAY: 73/2004
MAY 23:
KFAY: 72/2011
MAY 24:
KRDU: 70/2011
KFAY: 72/2000
MAY 25:
KGSO: 70/2019
KRDU: 71/2019
KFAY: 71/2019
MAY 26:
KGSO: 70/2019
KRDU: 73/2011
KFAY: 75/2004
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/GREEN
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
CLIMATE...RAH
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