035
FXUS62 KRAH 230614
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* CONTINUED INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES, THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING
THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ON AVERAGE,
THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
1) WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS AND SLOWLY RETREATING WEDGE FRONT
2) A FRONT THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS AND SLOWLY RETREATING WEDGE
FRONT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE IN/OH BORDER WILL TRACK UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS THAT HAPPENS, THE CAD WEDGE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD, LIKELY STALLING OUT AS IT MAKES IT WAY
INTO NORTH AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEDGE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SC INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NC, TUCKED AS FAR WEST AS NORTHEAST GA. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PERHAPS THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST ON THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT,
KEEPING THE WEDGE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE MUCH OF THE DAY,
WHILE NAM/ECMWF FASTER, LIFTING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE TRIAD STAYS NW OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE NE FLOW, WHILE
THE SANDHILLS TO SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SEE THE BOUNDARY LIFT
THROUGH. OUR FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE HRRR/NAM-NEST SOLUTIONS,
SUGGESTING THE BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT INTO THE TRIANGLE AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY COULD END UP
50-100 MILES NORTH OF SOUTH OF THIS LINE. REGARDLESS, IT WILL MAKE
FOR A WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE FAR
NW, TO SOME MIDDLE 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT, DRIVEN BY SEVERAL MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND EMBEDDED MCVS TRACKING IN THE MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STAY SOME 150-170 PERCENT OF NORMAL
IN THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE. INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO MID-MORNING
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
DOES DEPICT ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GRADUALLY TRACKING EAST FROM THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND INTERACTING
WITH THE WEDGE FRONT NEAR THE US-1 CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS SEA-BREEZE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, SOME 1000-1500
J/KG OF CAPE IS PRESENT WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS. WHILE WE
ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FROM SPC, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS WITH POSSIBLE WET MICROBURSTS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR/ALONG THE WEDGE BOUNDARY. THE HREF AND REFS
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS BOTH INDICATE A POSSIBLE SWATH OF 1-4 INCHES OF
RAIN STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WHERE THAT SETS UP WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
WHERE THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP STALLING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A FRONT THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TRIGGER THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, ONCE
AGAIN FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS. A STRONGER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD APPROACH WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THE DAY 2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DOES NOT SHOW A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THESE COUNTIES. BY THE TIME THE WEDGE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF
THE REGION, LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE A WIDE SWATH
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND ALL THE WAY SOUTHWEST INTO
TEXAS. WHILE THERE WILL NO LONGER BE A WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS,
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, GENERALLY DRAPED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, CONTINUING TO PUMP WARM, MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD DROP
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD PUT CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ONTO THE DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND BRING A
REDUCTION IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A BROAD AREA OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO START THE TAF PERIOD.
WAVES OF SHOWERS/RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE TRIAD TERMINALS OF
GSO/INT. TIMING OUT THESE WAVES OF RAIN WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE HREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AS WELL AS THE GRADUALLY
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT. THE CONSENSUS FAVORS GSO/INT LIKELY STAYING
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT IN THE LINGERING CAD AIRMASS. AS A RESULT,
THESE TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO HOVER BETWEEN LIFR/IFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST, THERE STILL REMAINS A
BIT OF SPREAD IN HOW FAR NORTH THE WEDGE FRONT LIFTS, BUT GOOD
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST IT LIFTS NORTH OF FAY AND PERHAPS RWI FOR
ESE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND LIFTING TO MVFR OR BRIEFLY VFR AT FAY. RDU
IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ON THE BOUNDARY OF IFR/MVFR. A WAVE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME AND THE LATEST
FORECAST INCLUDES A TEMPO/PROB30 TO COVER THIS THREAT SEEN IN
SEVERAL HREF MEMBERS. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP
SAT NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: THE CAD REGIME WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY, BUT
LIFR/IFR STRATUS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING. DAILY
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 23: KGSO: 59/1931
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 23: KFAY: 72/2011
MAY 24: KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000
MAY 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019
MAY 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004
MAY 27: KGSO: 72/1991 KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006
MAY 28: KGSO: 70/2012 KRDU: 74/1914
MAY 29: KRDU: 72/2012 KFAY: 73/2018
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/GREEN
AVIATION...KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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