668
FXUS62 KRAH 061022
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
625 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ARE TRENDING LOWER.
* CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT DANGEROUS HEAT WILL RETURN MID-LATE
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...
1) CONTINUED HOT THROUGH MON. TEMPS STILL WARM BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL
TUE-WED, BUT THEN ANOTHER HEAT WAVE IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
2) LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CONTINUED HOT THROUGH MON. TEMPS STILL WARM BUT
CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE-WED, BUT THEN ANOTHER HEAT WAVE IS POSSIBLE
LATE NEXT WEEK.
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OVER AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS. AS OF THE MOST RECENT SFC/UA ANALYSES, HIGH
PRESSURE SITS JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH
925 MB, JUST INLAND OVER E GA/S SC AT 850-700 MB, AND ALONG THE
AL/GA/FL LINE AT 500 MB. THIS CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY SUBSTANTIAL LOW
LEVEL ATLANTIC OR GULF SOURCE MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING INTO NC,
LIMITING CLOUDS, WHILE THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS FURTHER SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION, AND THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT IS
CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THE 00Z/6TH GSO SOUNDING HAS
AN 850 MB TEMP ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS DATE, AND THIS
ANOMALOUS HEAT IS LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SUN, AND LIKELY
MON AS WELL.
WE REACHED THE LOW-MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI, WITH
ONLY THE TRIAD SEEING SOME UPPER 80S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY, AND EVEN MORE SO SUN, ALTHOUGH
BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS (ALONG WITH A FEW HIGH-BASE CU AND MID CLOUDS)
AS UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMS OVER THE AREA MAY CURB
INSOLATION JUST A BIT, PERHAPS TAKING A SLIGHT EDGE OFF THE HEAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT OVERALL, WE SHOULD STILL SEE WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 90S TODAY AND SUN, MAINLY MID-UPPER 90S EXCEPT LOW 90S
IN THE W PIEDMONT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING, KEEPING THE PEAK HEAT INDEX IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BUT AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UP SUN/MON, THE
HEAT INDEX MAY REACH THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100F. GIVEN THE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF HIGH HEAT, PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE GREAT CAUTION BY STAYING
IN SHADE OR AC AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE AND LIMITING TIME IN DIRECT SUN.
BY MON, THE ANTICIPATED BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (OR SIMPLY LESS HOT) AIR MASS, BUT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY, AND CONFIDENCE IN MON TEMPS IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
FOR NOW, STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TUE MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S W-
E. BUT AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU, DEEP
RIDGING BUILDS ANEW, AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AS THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED
TO BE 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THU/FRI, SUPPORTING HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE MID-UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
ALOFT, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES SUN/SUN NIGHT, SITUATED BETWEEN A DEPARTING S/W CLIPPING
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
S/W TO THE WEST PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST AS THE S/W
SLIDES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC THU/FRI. AT THE SURFACE, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SSWWD ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON. GUIDANCE VARIES WRT THE
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE HIGH AS IT SETTLES SEWD ALONG/OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST TUE/TUE NIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT THE HIGH
TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE EWD TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WRT THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MID-WEEK, RESULTING IN INCREASED
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS MID-LATE
WEEK.
WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WRT THE CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. FOR MONDAY, THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SRN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS, HOWEVER COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR
LIMITED.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...
FAVORABLE VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, ALONG
WITH A FEW HIGH-BASE FLAT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SSW OR SW, 8-
12 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8 KTS OR LESS AT NIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SUN, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH AT
LEAST SUN, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION SHIFTS
SLOWLY E AND OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT ACROSS THE N AND E. SUB-VFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING
LATE MON AND PERSISTING THROUGH WED, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
IS LOW.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 6:
KGSO: 96/2008
KRDU: 99/2008
KFAY: 99/1943
JUNE 7:
KGSO: 98/1925
KRDU: 100/2008
KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 8:
KRDU: 101/2008
KFAY: 101/2008
JUNE 11:
KRDU: 100/1914
JUNE 12:
KRDU: 98/2002
KFAY: 99/1926
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 7:
KGSO: 73/2008
KRDU: 74/2008
JUNE 8:
KGSO: 73/2008
KRDU: 75/1899
KFAY: 74/2008
JUNE 9:
KGSO: 72/2020
KRDU: 75/1993
KFAY: 77/2008
JUNE 10:
KRDU: 76/2020
KFAY: 77/2020
JUNE 11:
KGSO: 74/2008
KRDU: 74/2008
KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12:
KGSO: 72/1998
KRDU: 75/1986
KFAY: 76/2016
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/10
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE..RAH
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