184
FXUS62 KRAH 070734
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NE TUE.
* CONTINUED INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO DANGEROUS HEAT
BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
1) CONTINUED HOT THROUGH MON. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HEAT TUE,
ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS HEAT WILL RETURN STARTING WED AND PEAKING
THU/FRI.
2) DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE MON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CONTINUED HOT THROUGH MON. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE HEAT TUE, ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS HEAT WILL RETURN STARTING
WED AND PEAKING THU/FRI.
THE OVERALL PATTERN OF STRONG RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PERSIST
INTO MON, MEANING A CONTINUATION OF ATYPICALLY HOT TEMPERATURES. THE
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER E GA/S SC IS STILL LARGELY LIMITING THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, SO WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY
CREEPING UP, THE LACK OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
(INCLUDING BELOW-NORMAL PW) AND MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE CURBING
CONVECTION AND KEEPING CLOUD COVER RESTRICTED TO JUST SCATTERED FLAT
HIGH-BASE CU AND BOUTS OF THIN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE W AND NW, WHILE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
CONTRIBUTES TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THE 850 MB TEMP ON THE 00Z/7TH
GSO SOUNDING REMAINS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS DATE, WITH
LITTLE CHANGE INTO MON, AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL, SUPPORTING A PERSISTENCE OF THIS
ANOMALOUS HEAT THROUGH MON. GIVEN THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH HEAT,
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE GREAT CAUTION BY STAYING IN SHADE OR AC AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE AND LIMITING TIME IN DIRECT SUN.
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON WILL PROPEL A
BACKDOOR FRONT NNE-TO-SSW INTO CENTRAL NC, ALTHOUGH WE'RE UNLIKELY
TO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN THICKNESSES UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY, AND
EVEN THEN THE RELATIVE "COOLING" WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE ONLY IN THE
FAR NE DURING MON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN AND EXTEND
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS CENTRAL NC, PROMPTING GREATER CLOUD COVER AND A
DIP IN THICKNESSES AS (COMPARATIVELY) COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
POST-FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST/N MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO THE SW. THUS,
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOT OF COOLER (OR SIMPLY LESS HOT) AIR, HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL, LOWEST NE. BUT AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TOWARD BERMUDA ON WED, DEEP RIDGING
WILL BUILD ANEW OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, AND CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND TO 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
BY THU/FRI, SUPPORTING HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK
SHOWS A 50-80+% CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT THU THROUGH SAT, SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR ALL
POPULATIONS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT IF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER, A
FEW DEGREES COULD BE SHAVED OFF OF THESE LATE-WEEK TEMPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE MON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED.
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN OUR FAR NE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR
NE, BUT OVERALL THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
KEEP COVERAGE LOW, WITH DIMINISHING CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. BY MON,
WE'RE FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG AND JUST SW OF THE FRONT AS IT SETTLES INTO THE AREA MON
AFTERNOON, BASED ON THE OVERALL PATTERN (LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AMIDST
IMPROVING PW TO ABOVE NORMAL) AND GOOD AGREEMENT ON RECENT CAMS
SHOWING LATE-DAY CONVECTION FROM THE W/S PIEDMONT ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND S COASTAL PLAIN, LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER
THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO OUR E WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
TOWARD BERMUDA, WE'LL GET BACK INTO A PATTERN OF WARM SURFACE TEMPS
AND DESTABILIZATION WITH DEEP MIXING EACH DAY, WITH PW REMAINING A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL (IN CONTRAST TO THIS WEEKEND), ESPECIALLY OVER THE
W CWA, IN RESPONSE TO WEAK/BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY ACROSS AND OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC TUE THROUGH THU. THE NBM SHOWS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE W AND S TUE-THU, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES AREAWIDE BY FRI. BUT AS IS CHARACTERISTIC OF TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE PATCHES OF HIGHER TOTALS
WITH MANY AREAS NOT SEEING ANY RAIN AT ALL, RESULTING IN MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NC TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFFSHORE AND EXTENDING WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TODAY, ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM
THE WEST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND GIVES WAY TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NNE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, A PERIOD OF BROKEN VFR SKIES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NE LATE
IN THIS TAF PERIOD, MAINLY AFFECTING RDU/RWI, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD STILL HOLD. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM NEAR RDU/RWI 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING, BUT MOST ACTIVITY WILL
BE ISOLATED AND N OF THOSE SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW
OR WSW, EXCEPT MOSTLY FROM THE WNW AT INT/GSO DURING TODAY. SPEEDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS EXCEPT 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z MON, AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NNE THROUGH DAYBREAK MON, THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AT RDU/RWI, BUT OVERALL THE CENTRAL NC TERMINALS WILL STAY
VFR THROUGH MON MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH MAY
CONTAIN BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS, ARE POSSIBLE MON
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE INT/GSO SE
THROUGH FAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CIGS MON NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUE
ACROSS THE W AND SW INCLUDING INT/GSO. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED, AND TYPICAL DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THU.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 7: KRDU: 100/2008 KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 8: KFAY: 101/2008
JUNE 10: KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 7: KGSO: 73/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 75/2008
JUNE 8: KGSO: 73/2008 KRDU: 75/1899 KFAY: 74/2008
JUNE 9: KGSO: 72/2020
JUNE 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE..RAH
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