939
FXUS62 KRAH 081731
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...
1) CONTINUED HOT TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HEAT TUE, ANOTHER
ROUND OF DANGEROUS HEAT WILL RETURN STARTING WED, PEAKING THU/FRI
AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
PIEDMONT LATE TUE/WED, THEN CHANCES INCREASE FOR DAILY CONVECTIVE
PRECIP AREAWIDE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CONTINUED HOT TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
HEAT TUE, ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS HEAT WILL RETURN STARTING WED,
PEAKING THU/FRI AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST TODAY, WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE, 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE 75TH, AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL, ALL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS FRONT IS BEING PROPELLED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
DIGGING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WHICH IS DRAWING A COOLER SURFACE
HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SSW DOWN THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO N AND E NC. IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR THIS AIR MASS TO WORK INTO OUR NE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES
TOWARD THE SW, SO STILL EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY, ALTHOUGH THE THICKER
AND MORE OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCT-BKN HIGH-BASE CU WILL REDUCE
INSOLATION, YIELDING HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, 90-96. WITH
THESE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH HEAT, PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN
EXTRA CAUTIOUS BY STAYING IN SHADE OR AC AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE,
STAYING HYDRATED, AND LIMITING TIME IN DIRECT SUN.
AS THE FRONT SETTLES FURTHER INTO THE CWA ACROSS OUR W AND S, THE
EXPECTED DIP IN THICKNESSES AND GREATER CLOUD COVER OVERALL, HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE LESS HOT, WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL, IN THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90. BUT AS THIS FRONT DISSIPATES AND THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TOWARD BERMUDA ON WED, DEEP RIDGING
WILL BUILD ANEW OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND TO 10-20 M ABOVE NORMAL BY
THU/FRI, SUPPORTING HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, PERHAPS REACHING 100F IN SPOTS. THESE HIGHS (AND
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S) THU/FRI MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED RECORDS. THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK SHOWS A
60-90% CHANCE OF REACHING THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3 OF 4) OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THU/FRI, SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR ALL
POPULATIONS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT IF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER, A
FEW DEGREES COULD BE SHAVED OFF OF THESE LATE-WEEK TEMPS,
PARTICULARLY FROM SAT ONWARD WHEN THE NBM TEMPS ARE STILL QUITE WARM
BUT ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER THAN THU/FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT LATE TUE/WED, THEN CHANCES INCREASE FOR DAILY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AREAWIDE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER OUR EXTREME NE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THEN, WITH INCREASING PW, LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW, AND HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SW OF THE INCOMING FRONT LATER TODAY,
ODDS ARE GOOD THAT WE'LL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
STARTING EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING, PRIMARILY
FROM THE W PIEDMONT SE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS TO THE S COASTAL PLAIN,
WITH LOWER TO NO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FURTHER NE. THIS IS
CORROBORATED BY RECENT CAM RUNS WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS
PATTERN AND TIMING. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY
RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM MID LEVELS, HOWEVER. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE PLACE-TO-PLACE, POCKETS OF HIGHER TOTALS RESULTING
FROM DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE, AND THE LATEST REFS PMM SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO OVER THE SANDHILLS IN PARTICULAR.
THE CHANCE FOR TYPICAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ON THE UPSWING FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION, THE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY, AS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY
SMALL-SCALE FEATURES WITH LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AT THIS RANGE.
BAGGY BUT AMPLIFIED TROUGHING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM MN THROUGH THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY THROUGH TUE BEFORE BROADENING AND DEAMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WED AND OUT OVER
THE NW ATLANTIC BY THU. MID LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL
ALLOW THE INTENSE HEAT TO RETURN, BUT THEN A LARGE MID LEVEL LOW
WOBBLING E NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH MID WEEK AND INTO S
ONT/QUE LATE WEEK WILL BRING INCREASING WESTERLY STEERING FLOW INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND MID SOUTH, HELPING TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK. ABOVE-NORMAL PW LARGELY HOLDS OVER W NC ACROSS
THE W CWA TUE/WED, THEN EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THU AND
BEYOND, ALTHOUGH VALUES WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE
925-700 MB FLOW WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO PERHAPS
LIMITED COVERAGE. BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE WEEKEND, WHEN A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD: MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. A FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, AND WHILE
IT WILL NOT DO MUCH TO COOL TEMPERATURES, IT WILL SERVE AS A
BOUNDARY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED THE INHERITED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR TSRA AT INT, GSO,
AND FAY WHERE THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED - NO SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AT RDU AND RWI. CUMULUS IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON,
AND SHOULD BECOME MORE OF A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT INT/GSO WILL HAVE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS EVEN
POSSIBLE, BUT WITH MODELS SHOWING A TIGHTER MOISTURE GRADIENT,
REMOVED THE MVFR TEMPO GROUPS AT RDU AND RWI, AND JUST GOING WITH
HIGH MVFR AT FAY. WIND WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE THE GREATEST AT INT/GSO ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
ALL SITES WILL DROP TO MVFR IN RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AFTER THAT, RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE
LINKED TO LOCATIONS WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 8: KFAY: 101/2008
JUNE 10: KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 8: KGSO: 73/2008 KRDU: 75/1899 KFAY: 74/2008
JUNE 9: KGSO: 72/2020
JUNE 10: KRDU: 76/2020 KFAY: 77/2020
JUNE 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...GREEN
CLIMATE..RAH
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