515
FXUS62 KRAH 081851
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
1) EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S
EVERYWHERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DANGER TO THOSE WHO LACK
ADEQUATE COOLING.
2) DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND THE
GREATEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
90S EVERYWHERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DANGER TO THOSE WHO LACK
ADEQUATE COOLING.
TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN, WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SIMILARLY, TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN.
THE TRIAD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT, SO HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S, WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE EAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND
90 DEGREES.
AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY, WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS
RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE GENERALLY INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY
AND INCREASE FURTHER IN TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND THE
UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY IS BETWEEN 10-30% FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR AND EAST. THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK IS
SHOWING THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC UNDER A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING AN EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE MADE WORSE BY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
EACH NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LITTLE RELIEF FROM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY
AND THE GREATEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY, IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TRIANGLE. WHILE RAP
SBCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 3000 J/KG, A LACK OF WIND SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, DCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG COULD ALLOW FROM STRONG WINDS. BY SUNSET, A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF I-74, BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF THE
TRIANGLE, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY IN THE TRIAD.
THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A DAILY PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN IS CURRENTLY LOW PREDICTABILITY IN EXACTLY WHERE SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE LREF SHOWING LESS
THAN 0.1 INCH OF RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, FORCING
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO FALL APART AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS AND POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE LREF IS SHOWING UP
TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND AN ADDITIONAL 0.1 INCH ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD: MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. A FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, AND WHILE
IT WILL NOT DO MUCH TO COOL TEMPERATURES, IT WILL SERVE AS A
BOUNDARY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED THE INHERITED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR TSRA AT INT, GSO,
AND FAY WHERE THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED - NO SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AT RDU AND RWI. CUMULUS IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON,
AND SHOULD BECOME MORE OF A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT INT/GSO WILL HAVE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS EVEN
POSSIBLE, BUT WITH MODELS SHOWING A TIGHTER MOISTURE GRADIENT,
REMOVED THE MVFR TEMPO GROUPS AT RDU AND RWI, AND JUST GOING WITH
HIGH MVFR AT FAY. WIND WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE THE GREATEST AT INT/GSO ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
ALL SITES WILL DROP TO MVFR IN RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AFTER THAT, RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE
LINKED TO LOCATIONS WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 8: KFAY: 101/2008
JUNE 10: KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 9: KGSO: 72/2020
JUNE 10: KRDU: 76/2020 KFAY: 77/2020
JUNE 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/HELOCK
AVIATION...GREEN
CLIMATE..RAH
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