837
FXUS62 KRAH 090029
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
829 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
1) EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S
EVERYWHERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DANGER TO THOSE WHO LACK
ADEQUATE COOLING.
2) DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND THE
GREATEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
90S EVERYWHERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DANGER TO THOSE WHO LACK
ADEQUATE COOLING.
TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN, WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SIMILARLY, TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN.
THE TRIAD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT, SO HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S, WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE EAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND
90 DEGREES.
AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY, WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS
RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE GENERALLY INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY
AND INCREASE FURTHER IN TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND THE
UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY IS BETWEEN 10-30% FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR AND EAST. THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK IS
SHOWING THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC UNDER A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING AN EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE MADE WORSE BY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
EACH NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LITTLE RELIEF FROM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY
AND THE GREATEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY, IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TRIANGLE. WHILE RAP
SBCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 3000 J/KG, A LACK OF WIND SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, DCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG COULD ALLOW FROM STRONG WINDS. BY SUNSET, A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF I-74, BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF THE
TRIANGLE, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY IN THE TRIAD.
THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A DAILY PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN IS CURRENTLY LOW PREDICTABILITY IN EXACTLY WHERE SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE LREF SHOWING LESS
THAN 0.1 INCH OF RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, FORCING
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO FALL APART AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS AND POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE LREF IS SHOWING UP
TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND AN ADDITIONAL 0.1 INCH ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 820 PM MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD: A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER INT/GSO, AND WHILE
LIGHTNING CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, IT
WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND ISOLATED. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO THEN DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT (INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS) LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER
INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AMONG THE MODELS. A PERIOD OF IFR IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE ON TUESDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS (RWI, RDU, AND FAY), MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH JUST SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. MVFR CEILINGS MAY GET AS FAR EAST AS
FAY ON TUESDAY MORNING, SO HAVE A TEMPO GROUP THERE, BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RDU OR RWI.
AS FOR WINDS, THEY WILL BE FROM A MAINLY EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT
RDU AND RWI. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, SHIFTING TO SE TUESDAY MORNING AND S/SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE THE GREATEST AT INT/GSO ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
INCREASING AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE THAT ALL SITES WILL DROP TO MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT, CONFIDENCE DECREASES AND
ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE LINKED TO LOCATIONS WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 8: KFAY: 101/2008
JUNE 10: KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 9: KGSO: 72/2020
JUNE 10: KRDU: 76/2020 KFAY: 77/2020
JUNE 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/HELOCK
AVIATION...DANCO/GREEN
CLIMATE..RAH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page