401
FXUS62 KRAH 091043
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT THU/FRI,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
1) UNUSUALLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS STARTING WED, LASTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST DANGEROUS HEAT ON THU/FRI.
2) WITH HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TAKING HOLD, WE'LL HAVE A CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... UNUSUALLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS STARTING WED, LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST DANGEROUS HEAT ON THU/FRI.
A RESPITE TO THE RECENT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVES TODAY, AS
A BACKDOOR FRONT SETTLES ACROSS OUR W AND S WITH A MORE TEMPERATE
AIR MASS BUILDING IN FROM THE NE, WHILE A BAGGY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER CLOUD
COVER AND NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES TODAY, WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL, IN THE LOWER 80S TO NEAR 90. BUT AS THIS FRONT
DISSIPATES AND THE SURFACE HIGH'S CENTER SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST TOWARD BERMUDA ON WED, THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO OUR S
AND E, ALLOWING DEEP RIDGING TO BUILD ANEW OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AS THICKNESSES REBOUND TO 10-20 M ABOVE NORMAL
THU/FRI. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
PERHAPS REACHING 100F IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY FRI. THESE HIGHS
(ACCOMPANIED BY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S) THU/FRI MAY
APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORDS, AND A HEAT ADVISORY OR OTHER HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED. THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK
SHOWS A 60-95% CHANCE OF REACHING THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THU/FRI, INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE
HEALTH IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL POPULATIONS WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING OR HYDRATION, AND HEAT ILLNESSES MAY DEVELOP SUDDENLY FOR
THOSE WORKING OR EXERCISING OUTDOORS DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE
DAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER SAT ONWARD BY A
CATEGORY OR SO, AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH A DIP
IN THE WESTERLIES INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY,
PRODUCING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION YIELDING GREATER CLOUD COVER. BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
WARM AND HUMID, AND THE HEAT STRESS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WITH HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TAKING HOLD, WE'LL HAVE
A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED ALBEIT TEMPORARY
RELIEF FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ESSENTIALLY WE
NEED SOME TRIGGERS TO GET THINGS GOING WITH THE INSTABILITY AND HEAT
IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE HARD TO TIME DISTURBANCES ALOFT (SOME
RESULTING FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM) THAT SHOULD COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND APPROACH OF SOME WEAKENING COLD FRONTS FROM
THE NW/N DURING THE PERIOD FOR STARTERS.
THUS, WE WILL CARRY AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE HIGHER POP APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY, SUNDAY,
AND MONDAY WITH 40-60 POP. THE LOWER POP MAY BE BEHIND
DISTURBANCES/WEAK SURFACE OR CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AND SUNDAY. YET, CHECK BACK IN AS UPDATES WILL OBVIOUSLY BE NEEDED
AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS. SUFFICE TO SAY, IT WILL BE VERY SUMMERY AND
THESE SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY PROVIDE TEMPORARY
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND DROUGHT. YET, THEY ARE MUCH NEEDED.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED OVER S AND W PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NC, INCLUDING INT/GSO AND FAY, LOCATIONS THAT SAW RAIN
NEARBY YESTERDAY. THESE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
TO VFR BY 16Z AT FAY BUT NOT UNTIL 19Z-20Z AT INT/GSO. AND AT INT, A
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND 12Z AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z. RDU MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, BUT OVERALL, RDU/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS
WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AFTER 09Z, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE AT INT/GSO. REGARDING PRECIP, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR INT/GSO LATE TODAY, MAINLY FROM 20Z
THROUGH 04Z, WHILE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE ESE OR E THROUGH 13Z, THEN
VEER TO BE FROM THE SE AND SSE BY LATE MORNING AND FROM THE SW TO
WSW THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS, THEN UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED, THE SUB-VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MID WED MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT INT/GSO.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE EACH DAY, WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 10: KRDU: 101/2008 KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
JUNE 15: KRDU: 99/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 9: KGSO: 72/2020
JUNE 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KFAY: 77/2022
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE..RAH
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