150
FXUS62 KRAH 091828
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
228 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 228 PM TUESDAY...
1) UNUSUALLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS STARTING WED, LASTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST DANGEROUS HEAT ON THU/FRI.
2) AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 228 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... UNUSUALLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS STARTING WED, LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST DANGEROUS HEAT ON THU/FRI.
TODAY'S HIGHS, PRIMARILY IN THE 80S EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 70S, WERE
THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THE HEAT WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE TRIAD RISING INTO THE 90S.
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE GENERALLY INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S ON
THURSDAY, RISING FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 99 ARE GENERALLY
ABOUT 10-30% OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WITH A FEW
SPLOTCHES OF 40-50% IN THE SANDHILLS AND THE TRIANGLE. THE
EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK IS SHOWING THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC UNDER A
MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING AN EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
IN THE SANDHILLS. THIS WILL ALSO BE MADE WORSE BY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
EACH NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LITTLE RELIEF FROM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN SOME,
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH OR MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY TO START NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, BEFORE THAT OCCURS, SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT AFTER SUNSET. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A DAILY PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN
IS CURRENTLY LOW PREDICTABILITY IN EXACTLY WHERE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT, WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE LREF SHOWING LESS THAN 0.1
INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, FORCING WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES
THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE LREF IS SHOWING UP TO 0.15
INCH OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 INCH ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAVER OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES EARLY WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PERSISTED AT INT/GSO INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR HEIGHTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, DIURNAL CUMULUS IS FORMING
UNDERNEATH HIGH CLOUDS, AND WHILE CLOUD HEIGHTS COULD BE NEAR 3000
FT, HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP RDU/FAY/RWI VFR. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
WILL APPROACH INT/GSO. HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LEAVE A VCSH MENTION
IN THE INT TAF, BUT THINK THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF
GSO (AND ALL OTHER SITES). PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM THE 12Z
TAFS IS GOING MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS AT INT/GSO LATE
TONIGHT - HAVE BACKED OFF THE MVFR CIGS TO SCATTERED CLOUDS,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OCCURRING AT
FAY, WHICH WILL MIX OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL SITES CURRENTLY HAVE
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THEIR WIND DIRECTION AROUND 5 KT, AND WILL
TAKE ON A LITTLE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT INTO THE EVENING. WITH
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY, GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MID-MORNING AT ALL SITES, SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 15-20 KT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THE NEXT
MORNING AT SITES THAT EXPERIENCE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 10: KRDU: 101/2008 KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
JUNE 15: KRDU: 99/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KFAY: 77/2022
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/HELOCK
AVIATION...GREEN
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