956
FXUS62 KRAH 101727
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDITION OF A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TO
THE TRIAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1025 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY, WITH UNUSUAL AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT THU/FRI. THE HEAT MAY ABATE A BIT SAT,
BUT TEMPS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUN.
3) AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1025 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, THE CURRENT FOCUS IS ON A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS
HAS PROMPTED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS IN WEST VIRGINIA; SO FAR THE ONLY REPORTS THAT HAVE COME IN
WERE OF SOME HIGH WATER AROUND CHARLESTON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR SHOW THAT THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MORE OF AN EASTWARD
COMPONENT THAN A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT, AND THE LINE IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND STAY IN VIRGINIA. HOWEVER, THE
00Z HREF HAS A FEW MEMBERS, PARTICULARLY THE ARW AND FV3 MEMBERS,
THAT SHOW THE MCS WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, BRINGING THIS
LINE INTO THE TRIAD BY 2-4PM. SINCE THE MODEL RUNS STARTED EARLIER,
THEY MAY NOT HAVE AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THERE ARE CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA, SOME CLEARING HAS BEGUN TO OCCUR, TEMPERATURES IN
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE LOW 80S, AND DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 70S, MORE MOIST THAN IN DAYS PAST. SO WHILE
THERE IS STILL REDUCED CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR, THE SOUPY AIRMASS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. IF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 10PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY, WITH
UNUSUAL AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT THU/FRI. THE HEAT MAY ABATE A
BIT SAT, BUT TEMPS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD BERMUDA TODAY, ALLOWING WARM
AND HUMID AIR TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NC. AFTER MILD READINGS
TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES TODAY WITH THICKNESSES A FEW M ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THE
PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION,
ALONG WITH SCATTERED LATE-DAY STORMS OF OUR OWN OVER THE PIEDMONT
PROMPTED IN PART BY A BAGGY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION, SHOULD HELP CURB INSOLATION AND KEEP OUR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. AS THICKNESSES REBOUND TO 10-20 M ABOVE NORMAL
THU/FRI, WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE,
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100, HOTTEST FRI.
THESE HIGHS THU/FRI MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORDS, AND GIVEN THE
ADDED HEAT STRESS FROM WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S, THE
RISK OF HEAT ILLNESSES WILL INCREASE, AND A HEAT ADVISORY OR OTHER
HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED. THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC HEAT
RISK SHOWS A 70-95% CHANCE OF REACHING THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3
OF 4) OVER ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL NC THU/FRI, INDICATING THAT
SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE HEALTH IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL POPULATIONS
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION, AND HEAT ILLNESSES MAY
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FOR THOSE WORKING OR EXERCISING OUTDOORS DURING THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS COULD BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
FRI, WHEN AN AREA FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH TO FAYETTEVILLE HAS A 50%
CHANCE OF EXTREME VALUES (LEVEL 4 OF 4) OF HEAT RISK. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER SAT ONWARD BY A CATEGORY OR SO AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH A DIP IN THE WESTERLIES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY, INCREASING THE CHANCE THAT WE'LL SEE GREATER
COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION COMPLEXES,
ALONG WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF IN SITU AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID, AND THE HEAT STRESS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3... AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, STALLING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. QPF BY THE MODELS REMAINS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCH TOTALS
FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: TAFS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT
INT, GSO, AND RDU. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS STEADILY
TRENDED SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO VIRGINIA, AND IF THIS
LINE HOLDS TOGETHER, IT MIGHT GRAZE INT/GSO, BUT WOULD HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF REACHING RDU. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER; ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT RWI TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME, WHILE NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AT FAY. AFTER SUNSET, JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS COMING TO AN END.
OUTLOOK: THE PRIMARY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE AROUND RDU/RWI, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
OTHER TERMINALS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE COMING ON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 10: KFAY: 99/2008
JUNE 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
JUNE 15: KRDU: 99/2015 KFAY: 101/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 10: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 76/2020
JUNE 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
JUNE 16: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2015
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/HARTFIELD/BADGETT
AVIATION...GREEN
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