835
FXUS62 KRAH 110947
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
550 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NC, INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE AREA, THE COASTAL PLAIN, AND
THE SANDHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
1) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
HEAT THROUGH FRI. THE HEAT MAY ABATE A BIT SAT, BUT TEMPS WILL STAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUN.
2) A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY, BUT
WE'LL SEE A GREATER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
3) AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH FRI. THE HEAT MAY ABATE A BIT
SAT, BUT TEMPS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY, ALLOWING WARM
AND HUMID AIR TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NC. OUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL REBOUND TO 10-20 M ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRI, WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE BAGGY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
SHIFTING E OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH SUFFICIENTLY HIGH RH VALUES TO
PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 100-105F, AND FRI IS EXPECTED TO BE HOTTER
STILL. GIVEN THE ADDED HEAT STRESS FROM MULTIPLE HOT DAYS, DECENT
SUNSHINE TODAY, AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S, THE RISK
OF HEAT ILLNESSES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND SHOULD PEAK FRI, SO A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRI. THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK SHOWS A 70-95% CHANCE OF REACHING THE MAJOR
CATEGORY (LEVEL 3 OF 4) OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC TODAY AND FRI,
INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE HEALTH IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
ALL POPULATIONS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION, AND HEAT
ILLNESSES MAY DEVELOP SUDDENLY FOR THOSE WORKING OR EXERCISING
OUTDOORS DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS COULD BE
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS FRI, WHEN AN AREA FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH TO
FAYETTEVILLE HAS A 40-50% CHANCE OF EXTREME VALUES (LEVEL 4 OF 4) OF
HEAT RISK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER SAT BY A CATEGORY
OR SO AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH A DIP IN THE
WESTERLIES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, INCREASING THE CHANCE THAT WE'LL
SEE GREATER COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
COMPLEXES, ALONG WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF IN SITU AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID, AND THE HEAT
STRESS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
NORTH TODAY, BUT WE'LL SEE A GREATER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS LATE
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 64. DESPITE HOT TEMPERATURES TO BOOST LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE, OUR STORM COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED, BASED ON MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PWS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RECENT CAMS DO SHOW SPOTTY
LATE-DAY REFLECTIVITIES OVER THE AREA, BUT COVERAGE IS LOW AND THE
CAMS AREN'T IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THIS ISOLATED
CONVECTION, LEADING TO REDUCED CONFIDENCE. THE HIGHER CHANCE OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT, WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SBCAPE IS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WITH PWS A BIT HIGHER, ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR AT JUST 15-20 KTS DURING THE TIME
OF PEAK CAPE. THE UCAR NEURAL NETWORK HAZARD FORECAST SUGGESTS A
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF NC, PARTICULARLY NW SECTIONS, AND THIS IS CORROBORATED
BY OTHER AI-BASED NWP AS WELL. BUT THE POOR FLOW ALOFT MAY LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION, DESPITE THE HOT SURFACE TEMPS TO FUEL
CONVECTION. BUT DCAPE IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG, HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, STALLING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY AND THEN
SUNDAY, THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. QPF BY THE MODELS REMAINS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCH TOTALS
FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 550 AM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHALLOW MVFR
FOG PATCHES EARLY THIS MORNING (UNTIL 13Z), BASED ON LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGH RHS. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS, BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI), BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SMALL WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF ANY TERMINAL BEING IMPACTED, SO HAVE
OMITTED THIS MENTION FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SW OR WSW, MOSTLY 10 KTS OR LESS BUT A FEW KTS HIGHER LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z FRI, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY DOMINATE
THROUGH MON, HOWEVER STARTING LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT, WE'LL SEE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR DAILY LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS, PERSISTING INTO
MON. ANY STORMS WILL BRING LIGHTNING AND A RISK FOR BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
JUNE 16: KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2015
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ009>011-024>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page