417
FXUS62 KRAH 112340
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES FRIDAY
* THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS INCREASED ON FRIDAY
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
1) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS,
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEAT OVER THE WEEKEND.
2) POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH.
3) AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEAT OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY
TODAY, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS ONLY SLOWED
THE RISE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 100
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, AND A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT. NO LOCATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 70 TONIGHT, WITH RALEIGH AND FAYETTEVILLE
LIKELY TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES TOMORROW, AND CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
SIMILAR, UPPER 60S TO 70, THAT WILL BRING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO
THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3 OF 4) OF EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK. THAT
INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE HEALTH IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
ALL POPULATIONS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION, AND HEAT
ILLNESSES MAY DEVELOP SUDDENLY FOR THOSE WORKING OR EXERCISING
OUTDOORS DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY, THIS TIME FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2... POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH.
THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
ACROSS VIRGINIA, BUT A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ONE TO TWO COUNTIES INTO NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE REGION, AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. A LACK
OF WIND SHEAR OR A BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED STORMS, BUT DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
AS FOR FRIDAY, THE MCS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, SERVING AS THE
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE FRIDAY SEVERE POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY EXPANDED
BOTH THE SLIGHT RISK AND MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH. THE CURRENT TIMING FOR THE
MCS DOES NOT BRING IT INTO THE TRIAD UNTIL AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON,
WHICH NOT ONLY MEANS THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE MORE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, IT WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF HEATING DURING THE DAY. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG, AND WHILE SHEAR VALUES WON'T BE MUCH HIGHER FRIDAY
THAN THEY ARE TODAY, THE EXISTING MCS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP ORGANIZE
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY'S PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND. FINALLY, IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOMORROW. DESPITE THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, IF RAIN RATES ARE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR A LONG AMOUNT OF
TIME, THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 3... AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, STALLING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY, WHERE IT MAY LINGER INTO MID-WEEK. DIURNAL,
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DAILY INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, THE
DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 740 PM THURSDAY...
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER BETWEEN RDU AND RWI HAVE LARGELY
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, LINGERING POP-UP STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF FAY AND
NORTHWEST OF RWI. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS AGAIN AT
RWI BETWEEN 00Z-02Z BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.
WE DID INCLUDE A PERIOD OF VCTS AT FAY UNTIL 02Z GIVEN STORMS
NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND QUIET
TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. NO THREAT OF FOG IS
ANTICIPATED BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR RWI WHERE RAIN FELL. A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE THUS FAR, BUT OPTED FOR
PROB30 GROUPS TO START GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN THE CAM HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK: DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND, WITH GREATER COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL WITH THE
PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS LATER THAT NIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926
JUNE 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
JUNE 16: KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2015
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ009>011-024>028-
040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/10
AVIATION...KREN/GREEN
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