602
FXUS62 KRAH 120705
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN EXPANDED
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
* INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND IN THE RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
1) DANGEROUSLY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. AFTER SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS SAT, ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS LIKELY SUN.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING, HIGHEST RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF.
3) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, CLOUDINESS, AND
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DANGEROUSLY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. AFTER
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS SAT, ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS LIKELY SUN.
PATCHES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AT LEAST 20 M ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND SEVERAL M
HIGHER THAN THU, WHEN GSO READINGS OF 1419 M AT 12Z ROSE TO 1441 M
AT 00Z THIS PAST EVENING. 00Z/12TH 850 MB TEMPS WERE AT A DAILY
RECORD (~21 C), AND READINGS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST IN THE
90TH PERCENTILE IF NOT NEAR ANOTHER RECORD. WHILE CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TODAY, STARTING FIRST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN OUR SE EDGE AS
WELL AS JUST TO OUR NW, THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY, GENERALLY AFTER 4 PM, ALLOWING
FOR STRONG HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TRADITIONAL MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHS (AIR TEMP, NOT HEAT INDEX) IN THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 AROUND THE AREA, AND THE DETERMINISTIC NBM CONTINUES TO
SKEW EVEN HIGHER, IN THE 97-104 RANGE, WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE
MEMBERS AT 94-101. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE 100F HIGHS REPORTED THU, THESE
VALUES FOR TODAY SEEM QUITE PLAUSIBLE. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
MIXING DOWN A BIT INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70, WE'RE STILL LIKELY
TO SEE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102-109. THE EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK
REACHES MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) EVERYWHERE TODAY, WITH AREAS FROM THE
TRIANGLE TO FAYETTEVILLE AREA REACHING EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4),
INDICATING THAT NOT ONLY IS THIS HEAT PARTICULARLY UNUSUAL, IT IS
CORRELATED WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT ILLNESSES AS NOTED BY HISTORICAL
CDC HEAT-HEALTH DATA, AND THIS HEAT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT HEALTH
IMPACTS ON ALL POPULATIONS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
HYDRATION AND COOLING. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL NC.
PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND DISSIPATING FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
SHOULD BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES AND RESULT IN LESS HEAT
FOR SAT, ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THEN THICKNESSES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN, AHEAD OF
ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE CLOUDS MAY INCREASE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH
EARLIER CONVECTION SUN, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL
PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN OVER 100, AS AIR TEMPS REACH THE
MID 90S TO NEAR 100. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUN,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRECEDING MULTIPLE HOT DAYS, WARM NIGHTS, AND
ONLY MODEST "COOLING" ON SAT LEADING TO AMPLIFIED HEAT STRESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, HIGHEST RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF.
THE SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK
RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY'S WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL HEAD INTO THE EASTERN STATES TODAY. WHILE THE SURFACE
FRONT AND SUPPORTING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST JET ALOFT HOLDING WELL TO OUR N, WE
ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
LATER TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW THU (CLOSER TO 20-25 KT VS. ~15
KTS), ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN UPPER DIVERGENCE AND PERHAPS ADDED
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM UPSTREAM MCVS. WHILE WE DON'T EXPECT TO SEE
QUITE THE LEVEL OF INTENSITY OR SEVERITY HERE AS WHAT THEY SAW IN
THE MIDWEST THU, THE SLIGHT BOOST IN FLOW ALOFT OVER NC COMBINED
WITH MODERATE-HIGH AFTERNOON MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND PROJECTED
DCAPE REACHING 1200-1400 J/KG AMIDST ABOVE NORMAL PW SHOULD LEAD TO
BETTER COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LATE-DAY DEVELOPMENT AND ARRIVAL OF
CONVECTION, AS MOST CAMS BRINGING REFLECTIVITIES INTO OUR NW AFTER
21Z, WHILE THE HREF AND REFS SUITES SHOW AN ONSET TIMING MOSTLY
AFTER 23Z, ALTHOUGH THE SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY START
EARLIER (BY MID AFTERNOON) IN OUR FAR SE. WHILE A FEW HAIL REPORTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE VA BORDER,
OUR MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST AND STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED ITS SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NEARLY OUR ENTIRE AREA.
WHILE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW, ANY
BACKBUILDING CELLS OR CONGEALING STORM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF IT FALLS OVER URBAN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP AGAIN
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE,
CLOUDINESS, AND SHOWERS.
THERE WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NC SUNDAY
MORNING THAT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MAY COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES TO RAISE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES MAY END UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES, ALONG AND
EAST OF AN EXPECTED SURFACE LEE TROUGH LATE SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
HOT AGAIN IN THE 90S. POTENTIAL MLCAPES OF 2000+ J/KG DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER ETC... SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALSO, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP TO OUR
SOUTH REDUCING RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS, HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND OF COURSE LIGHTNING. FAIR SKIES WITH AREAS OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
VERY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE, WE'LL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST (ALONG AN
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE) AND TO OUR NORTHWEST (OVER SOUTHERN VA AND
NW NC) MAINLY AFTER 20Z. AS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA, THE RISK FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE GREATEST 21Z-
02Z AT INT/GSO AND 23Z-05Z AT RDU/RWI/FAY. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AND FALL APART AFTER 05Z, LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY VFR
SCT-BKN DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW AND W INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE SHIFTING
TO BE FROM THE NW AND N BEHIND THE STORMS LATER TONIGHT, ALL AT
SPEEDS AROUND 8-15 KTS BUT LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK AND LATE TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE SE AFFECTING
FAY AND LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE SUN/SUN NIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT-TUE, AND
ANY OF THESE COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 12: KGSO: 104/1914 KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
JUNE 18: KRDU: 98/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
JUNE 16: KFAY: 77/2015
JUNE 18: KGSO: 73/2018 KFAY: 76/2017
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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