577
FXUS62 KRAH 121857
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
257 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
1) DANGEROUSLY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. AFTER SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS SAT, ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS LIKELY SUN.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING, HIGHEST RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF.
3) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHEST SUNDAY AFT/EVE, POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. RELATIVELY COOLER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING AGAIN LATE-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DANGEROUSLY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. AFTER
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS SAT, ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS LIKELY SUN.
AS OF NOON, ALL AUTOMATED STATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAD
ALREADY RISEN OVER 90 DEGREES, AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH 100
DEGREES TODAY. WITH GREATER HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS,
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 110
DEGREES. THE EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK REACHES MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
EVERYWHERE TODAY, WITH AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE TO FAYETTEVILLE AREA
REACHING EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4), INDICATING THAT NOT ONLY IS THIS
HEAT PARTICULARLY UNUSUAL, IT IS CORRELATED WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT
ILLNESSES AS NOTED BY HISTORICAL CDC HEAT-HEALTH DATA, AND THIS HEAT
COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT HEALTH IMPACTS ON ALL POPULATIONS,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION AND COOLING. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC. BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT, SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE LOWER,
BUT STILL IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
AGAIN ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN
IN MANY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUN,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRECEDING MULTIPLE HOT DAYS, WARM NIGHTS, AND
ONLY MODEST "COOLING" ON SATURDAY LEADING TO AMPLIFIED HEAT STRESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, HIGHEST RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF.
NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM DAMAGING
WINDS. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND IT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A SEA BREEZE BY MID AFTERNOON,
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROBABLY COME BETWEEN 6-
10PM AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS, BUT THE EXTREMELY HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG, SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO WORK
WITH. DCAPE WILL ALSO BE ABOVE 1000 J/KG, ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD GREATLY
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ONGOING DROUGHT, CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF RAIN RATES ARE HEAVY
ENOUGH AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHEST SUNDAY
AFT/EVE, POSSIBLE EACH DAY. RELATIVELY COOLER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING AGAIN LATE-WEEK.
ALOFT, A NRN STREAM S/W MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS AND MID-MS
VALLEY SAT NIGHT WILL CATCH UP WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE TN
VALLEY ON SUN, THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
SUN AFT/EVE. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN EVE. WHILE THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SUNDAY WRT STORM CHANCES AND STRENGTH, THE 12Z
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE 1000+ J/KG SBCAPE WITH ABOUT 20 KTS BULK
SHEAR COINCIDENT WITH A NAM NEST SIMULATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AFT THROUGH
SUN EVE. THE GFS INSTABILITY IS A BIT LOWER, ABOUT 500 J/KG, WITH
SIMILAR BULK SHEAR VALUES AND SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATING SOME
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FROM SPC, THERE IS CURRENTLY A
DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SUN AFT/EVE. MORE OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOULD BECOME
AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO, HOPEFULLY INCREASING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
MONDAY ONWARD: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY STALLING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG IT, ROUGHLY INVOF THE SC/NC COAST. THE
LOW SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUE, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY WED/WED NIGHT. SWLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SLIDES SWD INTO THE AREA LATE/END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL, PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, LOWEST PROBS ON WED WITH PERHAPS
THE WETTEST PERIOD LATE THU INTO FRI, THOUGH ITS A BIT FAR OUT TO BE
VERY CONFIDENT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS, HOWEVER,
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ADDITION TO A SEA BREEZE
OFF THE COASTLINE. WITH THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HAVE MADE MINOR SHIFTS
TO THE TIMING OF WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
SCATTERED NATURE, DID NOT WANT TO ADD THIS INTO THE FORECAST AS
WELL. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVES LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
HAVE RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WHAT
SITES MAY RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE NOT INCLUDED OVERNIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY WILL HANG UP TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW, AND WHILE INT/GSO SHOULD REMAIN DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
RDU/RWI AND LIKELY AT FAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 12: KGSO: 104/1914 KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
JUNE 18: KRDU: 98/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
JUNE 16: KFAY: 77/2015
JUNE 18: KGSO: 73/2018 KFAY: 76/2017
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/10
AVIATION...GREEN
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