519
FXUS62 KRAH 130701
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
301 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FROM
11 AM UNTIL 8 PM.
* PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM THE TRIANGLE
NORTH AND EAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
1) PROLONGED ANOMALOUS HEAT WITH MINIMAL OVERNIGHT RELIEF
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THE SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
AS WELL AS A PORTION OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
2) DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE GREATER COVERAGE, AND SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PROLONGED ANOMALOUS HEAT WITH MINIMAL OVERNIGHT RELIEF
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THE SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
AS WELL AS A PORTION OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
A WEAK FRONT WITH MINIMAL DRYING AND NEGLIGIBLE COOLING WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE NC COAST INTO CENTRAL SC LATER THIS MORNING.
IN ITS WAKE, A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HOT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES
WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS SOME DRIER SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING, CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF SEVERAL DAYS OF INTENSE
HEAT AND MINIMAL OVERNIGHT RELIEF, HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
AN IMPACT-BASED HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN, SANDHILLS, SOUTHERN PIEDMONT UP INTO THE TRIANGLE
FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM. THE COMBINATION OF MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEATRISK, HIGH THREAT LEVELS OF WBGT (>86), AND HEAT INDICES OF
+102 AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ANOMALOUS HEAT, IS A FAVORABLE
OVERLAP TO STILL SEE POTENTIAL SOCIETAL IMPACTS FROM HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS, ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OVER
THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND OUTFLOW RACING NORTHWARD MAY LIMIT THE WINDOW
FOR DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN
SANDHILLS.
A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED DISTURBANCE SHIFTING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON SUN WILL
RETURN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND +20C 850MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BUBBLE BACK
NORTHWARD THE WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S AND RESULT IN 100 TO 110 DEGREE HEAT INDICES,
GREATEST IN ALONG AND EAST OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR WHERE A POOL OF
HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL BE POSITIONED. CONSEQUENTLY, HEATRISK IS
HIGHLIGHTING MAJOR TO EXTREME ONCE AGAIN, INDICATING THAT NOT
ONLY IS THIS HEAT PARTICULARLY UNUSUAL, IT IS CORRELATED WITH
HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT ILLNESSES AS NOTED BY HISTORICAL CDC HEAT-
HEALTH DATA, AND THIS HEAT COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT HEALTH
IMPACTS ON ALL POPULATIONS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
HYDRATION AND COOLING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE GREATER COVERAGE, AND SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO VA AND THE
DELMARVA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, SW FLOW WILL INCREASE, BRINGING IN PLENTY OF
WARM MOIST AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S AND
PW VALUES OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES (125 TO 150% OF NORMAL). THUS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL, WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH, WE WILL STILL GET A GLANCING
BLOW WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. CAMS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
ON THE EXTENT OF SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THIS WILL
HOPEFULLY BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. REGARDLESS EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO THE ADDED
FORCING FROM THE WAVE, AND POPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE.
THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BE TO OUR NORTH ON
SUNDAY, BUT 30-40 KTS IS STILL DEPICTED IN THE MODELS, ALONG
WITH 20-30 KTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SO WHILE SHEAR ISN'T OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, IT COULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. THE GREATEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN OUR NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY, FORCING AND SHEAR. SPC NOW HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1
OF 5) RISK ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF
5) RISK FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST. EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS, SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-30 MPH AT TIMES.
BEHIND SUNDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GET
HUNG UP NEAR THE COAST, RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF MORE TYPICAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTH AND EAST
EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT IT WOULD BE WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS WE HEAT BACK UP AND
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
A WEAK FRONT, COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM
STORMS AND VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WITH MINIMAL DRYING AT THE
SURFACE, IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND WILL
TRAVERSE FAY WITH WEAK WINDS AND NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITHIN THE
HOUR. PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z SUN WIND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE, LEAST LIKELY AT THE TRIAD TERMINALS, GREATER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS ALONG THE SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW DRIVEN STORMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, THAT SHOULD MIGRATE NORTHWEST WITH
TIME; FAY AND RWI WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE
RESTRICTIONS, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS AS EARLY AS 19Z, BUT
MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 21-02Z.
OUTLOOK: DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR CIGS AND MIST CAN'T BE
RULED OUT AROUND ANY TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
JUNE 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
JUNE 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
JUNE 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ024-025-040>042-074>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...AS/JD
AVIATION...AS
CLIMATE...RAH
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