199
FXUS62 KRAH 262344
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
* HEAT WAVE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 203 PM FRIDAY...
1) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, WITH A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
2) INCREASING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HEAT WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IMPACTS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 203 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, WITH
A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER GA/SC, WITH A SECONDARY WEAK ELONGATED VORT MAX
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN GREENSBORO AND CHARLOTTE. WHILE
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS LARGELY UNSUPPORTIVE OF
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY, A DECENT CU
FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF SC/NC AND THE NC SANDHILLS. IT'S THESE AREAS WHERE
CONVECTION STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON AND WE
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME INITIAL ATTEMPTS AT DEEPENING
CONVECTION ON RADAR. WHILE THE OVERALL STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING, CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF US-1 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND PRESENCE OF A SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE
AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR THE GREATEST STORM CHANCES TODAY AND THIS
AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC. A CAPPING
INVERSION SHOULD TAKE HOLD SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH CONVECTION
DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY AREA OF STORMS
COULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MAKE A RUN AT THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GUIDANCE IS THAT ANY STORMS THAT TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE TRIAD
SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO.
SATURDAY WILL SEE INCREASED CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AS A WAVE OF DECAYING CONVECTION AND A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS, SPAWNING NEW
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z AND 12Z HREF OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA, THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS
ALSO THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC UNDER A SLIGHT RISK, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. AN SPC MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
FINALLY ON SUNDAY WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WHILE THIS WILL AID IN
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS COULD
FOCUS ONE MORE DAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY ON MONDAY AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PARKS ITSELF
OVERHEAD, LEADING TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED THREAT OF HEAT ACROSS THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2... INCREASING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, BUT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IMPACTS MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST AND FURTHER OFF
THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR A FEW DAYS OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL BRING WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH AND BE COMBINED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY TO
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S GENERALLY
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. ON SATURDAY, PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COULD SEE HEAT INDICES REACH THE LOWER 100S
FOR A BRIEF TIME, ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD QUICKLY DAMPEN
THESE READINGS. AFTER THIS, A DEEP RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US MID NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RAMP UP EACH AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 98 DEGREES IS
ABOUT 20-25% AREAWIDE, WHICH IS AN INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY'S
PROBABILITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE
WEEKEND, WHICH MAY CREATE DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD APPROACH
OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MOIST AIR COULD CREATE
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES. THUS, HEAT ADVISORIES OR EVEN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. HAZARDOUS HEAT CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE MADE WORSE BY HIGH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S OR 80S
EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY:
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED BY
LATE EVENING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (30 PERCENT) OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH 05Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF
STRATUS IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE IS EXPECTED, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
AREAS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIFT OUT TO VFR BY 13-14Z.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED PM
STORMS. THE CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WIND TO 40-50 MPH WILL BE HIGHEST (30-40 PERCENT) BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK BEYOND 00Z/SUNDAY
ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 99/2012 KRDU: 103/2012 KFAY: 104/1959
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEINS/HELOCK
AVIATION...BADGETT
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