902
FXUS62 KRAH 291051
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
651 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
1) AFTER NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, IT WILL TURN HOT MID TO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AFTER NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, IT WILL TURN HOT MID TO LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
A STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH/ANTICYCLONE, WITH STANDARDIZED
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST TO REACH 3-4 SIGMA, WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS EARLY TO MID WEEK AND SRN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS BY INDEPENDENCE
DAY, THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY NOT COOL MUCH UNTIL
CONVECTION AND DIABATIC COOLING ARE INTRODUCED, POSSIBLY SAT
AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY ON SUN.
HISTORICALLY, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVES IN CNTL NC OCCUR WHEN
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS CENTERED FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. IN THIS CASE, WHILE STRONG, THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE LATITUDE OF CNTL NC FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL
FAVOR THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FROM VA AND NJ TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST, WHILE TROPOSPHERIC-DEEP ELY FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER
CNTL NC - AT LEAST UNTIL THE RIDGE DAMPENS AND YIELDS A LIGHT WLY
COMPONENT BY INDEPENDENCE DAY. IN FACT, THE ONLY MATCH IN THE CIPS
ANALOGS FOR ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) IS
WHEN 08/09/2007 IS THE 13TH BEST MATCH ON SAT, WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND WLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS.
IT WILL NONETHELESS TURN HOT ESPECIALLY BY THU AND HOTTEST FRI-SAT,
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY A SIGNIFICANT HIGH BIAS, WITH WIDESPREAD 102-106 VALUES FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS DURING THE PERIOD, INCLUDING OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE GSO AVERAGES A SINGLE 100 DEGREE DAY EVERY 5-10
YEARS.
A SEA BREEZE MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT EACH EVENING,
WITH AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO AND OUTFLOW AT BEST INVOF A WRN
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH UNTIL THE RIDGE WEAKENS/DAMPENS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PRECIP/CONVECTIVE/COOLING CHANCES INCREASE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER
FROM SW-NE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH KRWI LAST TO RETURN TO VFR AROUND MID-
DAY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NELY AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY, DECREASING
AND VEERING AROUND TO MORE ENELY/ELY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A STRAY
SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM NEAR KRWI THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PROBS ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 107/2007-08-09
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 99/2012 KRDU: 103/2012 KFAY: 104/1959
JULY 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954 KFAY: 106/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
JULY 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/2024 KFAY: 98/2019
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1990
JULY 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
JULY 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...10
CLIMATE...
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